SaberMets Blog

New Home

2004-01-22T00:11:00.000-05:00

SaberMets has officially moved to a new server. The actual address is sabermets.weblogs.us, but please update all links and bookmarks to point to www.sabermets.com, which will redirect you to the correct site. If you know anyone who is still using the old link, please be so kind as to advise them of the address change.

Thanks for your patience with this move and for your dedicated reading of my brain droppings.

Blog entries from December and January have already been moved to the new site. October and November will be moved shortly.

SaberMets Update

2004-01-16T00:06:00.000-05:00

SaberMets will be moving soon. I am in the process of getting set up on a Movable Type server, thanks to the selfless folks at weblogs.us. Please check out the new layout and let me know what you think. I will be posting to both sites until the move is complete.

You can check out the new site HERE!

Please let me know what you think. Advice, tips, and encouraging words are welcome and appreciated.

Also, anyone who is currently linking (or has a bookmark) pointing to sabermets.blogspot.com, please update your links to target http://www.sabermets.com. It is currently redirecting to this site (blog*spot), but will be switched over to point to the new MT site as soon as it is complete. www.sabermets.com will always point to the correct address, so please use it in all of your links from now on.

Thanks for your patience.

What's That I Smell? Ah, Yes ... Money Burning

2004-01-15T00:02:00.000-05:00

The Baltimore Orioles are undoubtedly frustrated by their sixth consecutive fourth place finish. In fact, every season since 1998 has ended with the American League East standings looking like this:

1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Toronto Blue Jays
4) Baltimore Orioles
5) Tampa Bay Devil Rays

And the future doesn't look much brighter, at least in terms of the standings changing. The Orioles have taken a number of steps this offseason to at least improve the product on the field, even if it doesn't really get them any closer to the playoffs. Despite losing out on Vladimir Guerrero (I wonder what that must feel like), the Orioles have upgraded at several key positions.

Last season the O's flirted with .500 around the All-Star break, and were as close as 57-59 after beating the Red Sox on August 10. They finished the season 71-91, a mere 30 games behind the Yankees. If you're an Oriole fan (and who isn't?), there are brighter days ahead, even though those days won't be falling in October.

2003 SHORTSTOPS

                  OBP   SLG   OPS   WS
Miguel Tejada    .336  .472  .807   25
Deivi Cruz       .269  .378  .647   10
                                    --
                                    15 = 5 games

2003 FIRST BASEMEN

                  OBP   SLG   OPS   WS
Rafael Palmeiro  .359  .508  .867   19
Jeff Conine      .338  .459  .797   16
                                    --
                                    3 = 1 game

2003 CATCHERS

                  OBP   SLG   OPS   WS
Javy Lopez       .378  .687 1.065   30
Brook Fordyce    .311  .371  .682    5
                                    --
                                    25 = 8.3 games

The Orioles have significantly upgraded, at least offensively, at shortstop and catcher, with a decent upgrade at first base as well. Based on production numbers from 2003, they could reasonably expect to be 14 games better than last year, which is a lot of games. Based on their record from last year, the O's would project to go 85-77 which, sadly, would still have put them in forth place last season, just a game behind third place Toronto, who, by the way, have also improved themselves since 2003 ended, particularly their starting rotation and bullpen.

Even if they finish in fourth again, those 14 games will mean a whole lot to the millions of fans attending the games and watching on tv. Even though, by the above measure, they would still be well out of playoff contention, you can't underestimate the value of those extra wins in terms of fan appreciation and team morale. These things can't be measured by mundane baseball statistics, but the subjective human element is a powerful one indeed.

And now to the burning money. On top of the three sluggers they've inked this offseason, they have also just locked up Sidney Ponson for three years at $7.5 million per year. That's an awful lot of money to pay a pitcher who, by all accounts, had no other serious suitors. The Orioles were essentially bidding against themselves, and they couldn't get a better deal than this? Ponson is not a terrible pitcher by any stretch, but he's a not that good either, and he's a little thick in the hip for my liking.

Here's what Ponson has done these past few years.

SIDNEY PONSON 2001-2003

        IP    K/9    BB/9   HR/9   ERA+
2001   138.1  5.47   2.41   1.37    85
2002   176.0  6.14   3.22   1.33   107
2003   216.0  5.58   2.54   0.67   115

His peripheral numbers are nothing to write home about, though he did a great job in 2003 keeping the ball in the yard after giving up his fair share the previous two seasons. His ERA+ (ERA relative to the league) has improved each of the past three years as his workload has increased. His strikeout and walk rates, while not great, have remained steady as he has pitched more innings.

Let's say that in 2003 he found his stroke, and he'll continue to post ERA+ marks of around 115, or 15% better than the league. In 2003, the average salary for starting pitchers was $3.3 million (msnbc.com). Hell, let's say that Ponson hits his stride next season and is 20% better than the league.

Let's see. That's $3.3 million x 1.20 = $3.96 million. Throw in an extra $40,000 for a personal trainer and dietician and you're at an even $4 million, which is pretty fair for someone of Ponson's talents. Over three years, that's $12 million, or $10.5 million less than the Orioles are actually going to pay him.

Clemens Joins the Astros ... Piazza Seen Polishing His Whooping Stick

2004-01-14T00:17:00.000-05:00

As everyone is aware by now, Roger Clemens has signed a one-year deal with Los Houston Astros. Personally, I've hated Clemens for a while. More specifically, since he joined the Yankees after the 1999 season in a trade for David Wells (plus Graeme Lloyd and Homer Bush).

Now that Clemens has signed with Houston (joining fellow Texan, workout buddy, devout Christian, and candidate for most overrated pitcher in baseball Andy Pettitte), I don't harbor such bad feelings for him. Much of the animosity stemmed from his multiple run-ins with Mets slugger and latent heterosexual Mike Piazza. Besides, as a baseball fan it's hard not to root for the best pitcher in the past forty years not named Tom Seaver.

Anyways, in the wake of Clemens' deal, ESPN.com's Sports Nation added a new poll asking readers which team they thought had the best rotation. Their choices look like this:

Houston Astros
Roy Oswalt (10-5, 2.97)
Andy Pettitte (21-8, 4.02)
Roger Clemens (17-9, 3.91)
Wade Miller (14-13, 4.13)
Jeriome Robertson (15-9, 5.10)

New York Yankees
Mike Mussina (17-8, 3.40)
Kevin Brown (14-9, 2.39)
Javier Vazquez (13-12, 3.12)
Jose Contreras (7-2, 3.30)
Jon Lieber (injured)

Oakland A's
Tim Hudson (16-7, 2.70)
Mark Mulder (15-9, 3.13)
Barry Zito (14-12, 3.30)
Mark Redman (14-9, 3.59)
Rich Harden (5-4, 4.46)

Boston Red Sox
Pedro Martinez (14-4, 2.22)
Curt Schilling (8-9, 2.95)
Derek Lowe (17-7, 4.47)
Tim Wakefield (11-7, 4.09)
Byung-Hyun Kim (9-10, 3.31)

Chicago Cubs
Mark Prior (18-6, 2.43)
Kerry Wood (14-11, 3.20)
Carlos Zambrano (13-11, 3.11)
Matt Clement (14-12, 4.11)
????

Florida Marlins
Josh Beckett (9-8, 3.04)
A.J. Burnett (injured)
Dontrelle Willis (14-6, 3.30)
Brad Penny (14-10, 4.13)
Carl Pavano (12-13, 4.30)

Of course, I wouldn't mind if my team sported any of these staffs. As of now, the poll results look like this:

23.7% Boston Red Sox
21.6% Oakland A's
20.2% Chicago Cubs
17.8% Houston Astros
11.4% New York Yankees
5.2% Florida Marlins

For the record, I voted for the Red Sox. For a very elementary comparison, I am going to use Bill James' Win Shares to come up with a value for each staff. I am only going to use the top four pitchers for a number of reasons. Firstly, I don't know how many win shares ???? recorded for the Cubs last year. Also, Jon Lieber didn't pitch at all last year and only pitched 141 innings in 2002. Since A.J. Burnett only pitched 23 innings last season I will use his win shares from 2002 (thanks to baseballtruth.com).

2003 PITCHING STAFF WIN SHARES

TEAM        WIN SHARES
A's         69 (Hudson 23; Mulder 17; Zito 18; Redman 11)
Cubs        68 (Prior 22; Wood 18; Zambrano 18; Clement 10)
Yankees     67 (Mussina 19; Kevin Brown 20; Javier Vazquez 21; Contreras 7)
Red Sox     61 (Martinez 20; Schilling 15; Lowe 12; Kim 14)
Astros      49 (Oswalt 10; Pettitte 15; Clemens 15; Miller 9)
Marlins     49 (Beckett 11; Burnett 14; Willis 14; Penny 10)

I'll admit that this comparison is crude and rudimentary. Curt Schilling, who averaged 24 win shares in 2001-2002 only earned 15 in 2003 due to injuries. Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller also missed time last season, but sported win share averages from 2001-2002 of 17 and 15, respectively.

If the Cubs end up signing Greg Maddux, this table wouldn't look much different because Maddux had only one more win share (11) than Matt Clement. However, Clement's 10 win shares are better than most #5 starters, which is what he would be on that staff. The A's, Cubs, and Yankees are the cream of the crop here, with the Red Sox very close given a full season of Shilling and Tim Wakefield's 12 win shares.

Ex-Met Signings

2004-01-13T10:30:00.000-05:00

A couple of familiar faces caught on with new teams today. Jay Payton signed a two-year deal with the San Diego Padres worth $5.5 million. He will earn $1.5 million in 2004 and $3.5 million in 2005, and the Pods have a $4 million team option for 2006. If Payton can stay healthy, Payton will provide decent production and defense in center field. Payton was no doubt helped by the friendly confines of Coors Field in Colorado last season. Some will point to the fact that he hit more homeruns on the road than at home (15 to 13), but he was markedly better in almost every other category at home.

JAY PAYTON'S 2003 HOME ROAD SPLITS

         AVG   OBP   SLG
HOME    .322  .377  .540
AWAY    .281  .330  .483

Payton ranked #32 in National League outfielders in Win Shares last season with 15, just behind Cliff Floyd who only played 108 games. Payton's signing will likely move Xavier Nady back to AAA, which will probably do him some good. He's still only 25, but still needs a lot of work at the plate if he wants to become a productive everyday outfielder in the big leagues. He had an OPS of 712 (.321 OBP, .391 SLG) which is only slightly better than one Roger Cedeno. He showed a little more pop in the minors, posting a SLG of .499 in three seasons.

Like Payton, Matt Franco signed a new contract today. Unlike Payton, Franco will be playing in another hemisphere. Franco signed a 1-year, $750,000 deal with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan. If that name rings a bell, it should because former Mets manager Bobby Valentine is the current manager of the Marines. This isn't a big surprise because Bobby V was always a big fan of Matty F. There were rumors a few weeks back that Bobby was trying to Turk Wendell overseas as well. In any event, this looks like a good deal for Franco. He wasn't likely to get a major league deal with any American club, and 750 bones is not bad for a year's "work".

Easy Come, Easy Go

2004-01-12T00:42:00.000-05:00

So the Mets didn't bag free agent stud Vladimir Guerrero. So the Mets still have a huge gaping hole in right field. Things could be a lot worse. Disappointment abounds, from Mets fans to players to the entire Mets organization. Even though we were braced from the outset that this was a longshot at best, it's hard not to get your hopes up.

The Mets have done a lot right this offseason. With a few key moves and zero A-List additions, the Mets have gone a long way to help alleviate the pain inflicted by the last two seasons of "baseball" in Queens.

For the latter half of the Steve Phillips era, the Mets made a number of "win now" moves in an effort to get the most out of a core group of players who were getting older and less competent every season. The Mets best season under the Phillips regime was 1999. Sure, they went to the 2000 World Series, but the 1999 team was the best one they sent out there in the past decade.

Once the Mets lost to the Braves in the NLCS and John Olerud took a reasonable deal to go home to Seattle, the hourglass had been flipped and time began ticking away on this ballclub.

Robin Ventura was coming off a career season, and the Mets management struggled to find a suitable replacement for Olerud, eventually setting for Todd Zeile, who had started a grand total of 62 games at first base to that point. He had a respectable first season with the Mets, but the team was the recipient of some good fortune en route to the franchise's first World Series appearance in 15 seasons. They dodged a bullet by not having to face their nemesis, the Braves, in the NL playoffs.

We all know too well where the story goes from here. Despite playing in back-to-back LCS, the Mets were a team and an organization on the decline. The Mets star players (Mike Piazza, Al Leiter, etc.) were already on the wrong side of thirty, with further regression of performance to be expected. Nevertheless, the Mets two-headed ownership demon (Nelson Doubleday and current owner Fred Wilpon) approved a series of moves that, at least in retrospect, ultimately led to the decimation of the franchise, leaving the team and its many many fans scratching their collective heads.

Aside from a handful of leftovers (Piazza, Leiter, John Franco), there remains little at Shea to remind us of those years of near-greatness. Mets general manager Jim Duquette is slowly but steadily rebuilding the foundation of this franchise. The Mets farm system, once completely bereft of talent, is now blossoming, with a number of young arms and quality position players making their way up the organizational ladder, projected to roam the fields of Shea within the next few seasons.

Additionally, management has thrown away the ideas that led to the recent decline, electing to focus on the elements that brought championships to Queens in 1969 and 1986. Pitching and defense win games, as they say. At the very least, they help to put your offense in the position to win those games.

So the Mets didn't sign Vlad Guerrero. I think they played it as well as they could have, though. They waited around long enough so that they actually had a fighting chance to sign the slugger on their own terms. There was a soft market for Guerrero, and the Mets almost landed him. Some may scoff at the Mets offer, calling $30 million guaranteed over three years a lowball pitch. The fact is, the Mets could not secure insurance on Guerrero's back and, based on his medical records and the advice of the Mets physicians, guaranteeing any more money than that would be foolhardy.

I would have been thrilled if Vlad had signed for three guaranteed years, with the potential for $70 million over five seasons if he could, *gasp*, stay healthy enough to clock in for 400 plate appearances per season. I would have been less thrilled if the Mets had assumed all of the risk (as teams seem to be expected to do) and given Guerrero five guaranteed years at $14 million per (as the Angels have apparently done). Let him go, he probably had no intention of playing in New York anyway.

Maybe next year the Mets can convince Carlos Beltran to play right field. Maybe they can lure Magglio Ordonez to the Big Apple. Who knows. I do know that the Mets will be better this year than they were last year, and will be better next year than they are this year. I also know that I like the direction things are going in, I like the plan Jim Duquette has put together and stuck to, and I like the chances that the Mets will be playing meaningful games by 2005.

I have no choice. I'm a Mets fan, and I take what I'm given.

Vlad Update & Mets Mini Camp

2004-01-09T14:30:00.000-05:00

According to ESPN.com's Buster Olney, the Orioles are considering making a new offer to Pudge Rodriguez, with the plan being for he and Javy Lopez to both split time between catcher and DH. Such an offer may indicate that the O's will take a pass on Vladimir Guerrero, electing to spend their money on an outfielder from the 2004 free agent class, such as Carlos Beltran or Magglio Ordonez.

* * * * * * * * * *
If you didn't already know, the Mets have been conducting their January Mini Camp in St. Lucie, Florida. NYFanSites.com has been reporting from Florida all week with news and photos of the Mets in action. Check out their daily reports from this week if you haven't already.

Monday: Mini Camp Opens
Tuesday: Braden Looper
Wednesday: Peterson Tinkers With Roberts & Wheeler
Thursday: Davidson Puts On A Show
Friday: Lastings Impression

Dream A Little Dream

2004-01-09T11:01:00.000-05:00

According to several sources, the Mets have made an offer to free-agent outfielder Vladimir Guerrero. Based on reports, the offer appears to be worth $30 million over three years, with incentives based on plate appearances that could bring the value closer to $40 million, or approximately the same $13 million annually that the Baltimore Orioles have offered. There is also speculation that the offer contains vesting options for a fourth and fifth season, similarly based on plate appearances.

If all incentives were met (which probably only requires that Guerrero not spend an inordinate amount of time on the disabled list), the total value of the contract would likely be between $65-$70 million over five years, which is almost identical to the terms of Baltimore's offer.

For all intents and purposes, acquiring Vladimir Guerrero amounts to little more than a pipe dream for the Mets (and me). Be that as it may, a pipe dream still requires that there be at least a modicum of hope that something can happen. The fact that Guerrero has not signed yet and that Spring Training is but a month away means that there is something keeping him from signing with Baltimore.

The player's union is no doubt encouraging (read: demanding) Guerrero's agents to take the largest guaranteed offer, which doesn't bode well for the Mets' chances. Regardless, I am, by nature, a hopeless optimist. An answer was originally expected from Guerrero within the next couple of days, but some think it could drag into next week, if not longer. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

* * * * * * * * * *
If you missed any of this week's blogs, please check them out.

Monday: A Closer Look
Tuesday: Link-A-Dink
Wednesday: Things Are Not As Vlad As They Seem

Things Are Not As Vlad As They Seem

2004-01-07T12:02:00.000-05:00

You never know. I almost shat myself when I saw this at ESPN.com last night:

Report: Mets interested in signing Guerrero

The likelihood of the Mets signing Vladimir Guerrero is remote at best. He has an offer on the table from Baltimore for 5 years, $65 million, that has seemingly been out there since he became a free agent. The Dodgers and Marlins are allegedly interested, though my guess is that any deal with Florida would be contingent on a new stadium deal (a la the Mike Lowell deal).

We've known all long that Guerrero desires a new home with a significant Dominican population. Baltimore does not fit that bill. Florida does, but there are contract issues there that I am skeptical about. New York can definitely cash in here, as it sports a large Dominican contingency, as well as a general wealth of spanish-speaking individuals.

Guerrero's fear of the big stage spotlight appears to have been overblown, as his agent has testified to the contrary.

The hangup, as usual, is the money and contract length. Mets GM Jim Duquette has gone on record as saying that his organization has put a three-year cap on free agent contracts. This could actually work to Guerrero's advantage. Lets say the Mets ink him to a three-year deal worth $15-$16 annually, plus a couple of mutual options that could bring it up to five-years, $80 million. Guerrero could then go out there for the next three seasons and continue to tear apart National League pitching (he sports a career 978 OPS). After his three seasons, he'll still only be 30 years old. If the market opens up a bit for him, he will have proven that:

a) he can play in the big city
b) his back is fine
c) he's one of the five best players in baseball

If he wants out of the contract at that point, the Yankees could then sign him for four-or-five years at $16-$18 million per. If he can't get that kind of deal, he can stay with the Mets for another year or two at $16 million, and continue to test the waters after each subsequent season.

Plus, with the Mets he would actually have a chance to compete for something other than third place. Granted, the Mets are not in position to win anything in 2004 (though Guerrero could be enough to push them from a .500 team to a Marlins-esque underdog). However, they stand a very good chance of competing in 2005 and 2006, particularly with Scott Kazmir and David Wright making their way to big Shea.

If you want Vlad, you can now make your voice heard. Head on over to SignVlad.com, where you can sign an online petition or fill out a mail-in petition to send Mets owner Fred Wilpon and beseech him to sign Guerrero.

* * * * * * * * * *
Believe it or not, there are two new Mets blogs to check out on the sidebar. The first is East Coast Agony, a two-headed blog monster featuring two long-suffering baseball fans: Red Sox fan Big K and Mets fan Metropolitan Mike.

The second is The Baseball Blog of Oz, which discusses current Mets events, as well as other local professional sports.

Stop by both and say hi.

* * * * * * * * * *
SaberMets passed the 10,000 visitor mark yesterday, which is an honor to me and a testament to you, the readers. Given the large number of return visitors, I realize that many of you have eschewed better judgment by continuing to read the nonsensical digressions of an obsessed baseball fan, and for that I thank you.

Link-A-Dink

2004-01-06T00:09:00.000-05:00

I am so horribly lazy. That, compounded with the fact that there isn't a lot of real interesting baseball news going on (unless you consider a Scott Stewart trade interesting, Mrs. Stewart's opinion notwithstanding), has left me with little to write about and even less motivation to do so.

With that in mind, I present to you some recent links regarding the Mets top prospects.

BaseballAmerica.com: Top Ten Prospects: New York Mets

If you didn't already know, BaseballAmerica.com is the top dog in minor league coverage. This particular article whets your appetite with the Mets top stud, Scott Kazmir. You then must subscribe to their online service in order to view the rest of the top ten. You can also Pre-Order their 2004 Prospect Handbook like I did. Even if you don't, I will fill everyone in on the rest of the top ten when my copy arrives in March.

BaseballAmerica.com: Top Ten Prospects: Mets Chat

If you're into reading about Mets prospects and farmhands, look no further. Baseball America's J.J. Cooper sat down for three hours and chatted with one and all about the Mets farm system, prospects, etc. It's a long read, but you're bound to learn something new here.

The Minors First: Top 100 Minor League Prospects

A bit disappointingly, Scott Kazmir is only #14 on the list. Of course, he's only a little over a year out of high school. The Mets have a total of five players in the top 100, including David Wright, Matt Peterson, Justin Huber, and Victor Diaz. Some nice insight on each of the players.

ProspectReport.com: 2003 New York Mets

This list was actually compiled back in April 2003, so you'll see some names that aren't prospects anymore because they're with the big club. There should be a 2004 list up soon, so keep an eye out for that.

* * * * * * * * * *
Before I go, I'd like to pass along my deepest sympathies to the family and friends of Frank Edwin "Tug" McGraw Jr., who lost his battle with brain cancer today. He pitched for the Mets long before my time, but his words "You Gotta Believe" still ring true today.

I'd also like to give my thoughts and best wishes to my buddy Mike and his family, who put their six-year-old cocker spaniel Hunter to sleep on Sunday. Even though he wouldn't let me give him the Pedigree a few years back when I used to call him HHH, I hope he's at peace now.

A Closer Look

2004-01-05T00:01:00.000-05:00

Ah, the closer. Pretty standard, really. Usually a fireballer, summoned from the bowels of the bullpen to shut down the opposing team's hitters for one inning. Three outs is all he's asked to record. If he does so, and he does so well, he will be richly rewarded with praise, fortune, etc. Should he ever falter in this task, however, he shall rue the day. A fickle bunch, these closers. Untouchable one day, uncomfortable the next. If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen, they say.

And so it was, the Mets, having pawned off "beleaguered" closer Armando Benitez last season and spent much of this offseason searching for his replacement, even if he were to be an interim one. You heard the names tossed around: Billy Koch, Ugeth Urbina, Keith Foulke.

Take a look at the following career lines:

CAREER
            ERA+   K/9    BB/9   HR/9   SV%
Player A    113    5.66   3.56   0.71   69%
Player B    144   11.77   4.84   1.03   85%

Even though Player B is more prone to the gopher ball, he is clearly the better closer. You must be saying to yourself, "Self? It's brutally obvious that Player A is the closer we dumped last year and Player B is the next big thing, our closer of the present, a player I would gladly give a two-year, $6.5 million deal with a team option for a third year at $5 million with a $250k buyout. Why, even somebody with as many textbook-case neurological disorders such as myself can tell that".

I'm sure you've already seen through my thinly-veiled rhetoric to come to the conclusion that Player A is new Met Braden Looper while Player B is Met castoff and new Marlins closer Armando Benitez.

Benitez had clearly worn out his welcome in New York. He will probably do for Florida what he has done for the Mets these past few seasons. Namely, save the majority of his games, strike out a batter-per-inning, and give up a few too many homeruns, particularly in important situations. That, if anything, is what has haunted Benitez throughout his career. Even before he was traded to the Mets (in what was one of the unheralded acts of ingenuity on Steve Phillips part, by netting Benitez and then-speedster Roger Cedeno for Todd Hundley), Benitez had post-season issues with the Orioles.

The two biggest games he blew, for me at least, were Game 6 of the NLCS in 1999 against the Braves and Game 1 of the World Series in 2000 against the Yankees. That's not to say there weren't other memorable heartaches, just that those hurt the most.

The big picture, much to the dismay of Benitez-haters, is that he has actually been one of the best closers in baseball over the past five seasons, and will continue to be one.

Looper is a fresh start, though. He's a former first-round pick of the Cardinals, and the Mets are obviously hoping that pitching coach Rick Peterson can do for him what he's done for Billy Koch and Keith Foulke these past two seasons. Unlike Benitez, Looper doesn't give up a lot of home runs, and actually does a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground.

CAREER GB/FB RATIO

Looper     1.91
Benitez    0.67

With the Mets now-solid up-the-middle defense, this will be a welcome addition. At the very least, the Mets are not paying too much over too long, and Looper will keep the spot warm for one of the Mets potential future closers.

Keiths In The Hall

2003-12-29T00:12:00.000-05:00

Keith Hernandez was one of the pillars of the mid-eighties' Mets resurgence that culminated in the 1986 World Series Championship. He had previously won the World Series in 1982 with the Cardinals before being sent to New York in a lopsided trade for pitchers Neil Allen and Rick Ownbey. With the upcoming Hall of Fame voting, Hernandez will appear on the ballot for the ninth time. Even if he is elected, he would likely be enshrined as a Cardinal, having played most of his career in St. Louis. That would leave Tom Seaver as the only player in the Hall actually wearing a Mets cap.

To this point, the arguments for Hernandez' candidacy have not been compelling enough to garner the 75% vote necessary for election. For my analysis, I am going to defer, as I usually do, to a method introduced by Bill James in his book The Politics of Glory.

This method involves a series of questions that James calls "The Ken Keltner List". The questions are somewhat subjective in nature, but can be considered objectively with a little help from statistics. So, without further adieu, The Ken Keltner List on Keith Hernandez.

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No. He tied for first in voting for the 1979 MVP award with Willie Stargell, but received more first place votes (10-4), and had a significant lead in OBP (.417-.352). He also finished second in 1984 (Ryne Sandberg) and fourth in 1986 (Mike Schmidt). However, I doubt anyone ever considered him the best player in baseball, or even one of the five-or-ten best.

Was he the best player on his team?

Yes. Clearly in 1979 and 1984, and quite possibly 1986, though Darryl Strawberry was also very good that year.

Was he the best player in his league at his position?

Yes. Defensively, he won the Gold Glove 11 straight seasons from 1978-1988. Offensively, he was the best in 1979, 1980, 1986, and was close in 1984.

Was he the best player in baseball at his position?

Yes and No. Defensively, he was the class of baseball for a decade. Don Mattingly was the best first-baseman in the AL in the late eighties and early nineties, but that was mostly after Hernandez' best days were behind him. Offensively, 1979 was the only season where Keith was the best first-baseman in baseball.

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

In 1982 and 1986 for sure. He didn't contribute much to the Mets postseason run in 1988. Two is a number, isn't it? Yes.

Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes. Keith turned 30 after the 1983 season, and put up an average OPS+ of 131 over the next six seasons.

If he retired today, would he be the best player in baseball not in the Hall of Fame?

Maybe. He was probably better than Sandberg, though Jim Rice was probably better with the stick. He's definitely better than Andre Dawson, and maybe even Paul Molitor. I'm going to make this one a "No", but it's close.

Are most of the players who have comparable triple-crown stats in the Hall of Fame?

No. He always hit for a high average, but his HR and RBI are not going to get him elected.

If he retired today, would he be the best player at his position not in the Hall of Fame?

Donnie Baseball was very similar. They had comparable career OPS (.820 for Keith, .829 for Donnie), though Keith holds a slight edge in career GPA (.282-.279). Until Mark McGwire is eligible, I'll say Keith is the best first-baseman out there.

Are the player's totals of career approximate value and offensive wins and losses similar to those of other Hall of Famers?

Hernandez is 57th all-time in offensive winning percentage among players with at least 8,000 plate appearances. Of these players, around 10 are hall-eligible and not inducted. He only has 1265 runs created in his career, which does not compare well with others.

Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

No, I wouldn't say so.

How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

One award, four top-ten finishes.

How many All-Star type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most other players at his position who made the Hall of Fame play in a comparable amount of games or have a comparable amount of All-Star seasons?

He played in five All-Star games, in 1979, 1980, 1984, 1986, and 1987. Not bad, but not really HOF-caliber.

If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Iffy. While his leadership and glovework were top-notch, he wasn't really a big bopper, and would probably need some help. That being said, he was the best player on the Mets in 1986, and we know how that turned out.

Hernandez' candidacy is no doubt hurt by his lack of power. He only hit 162 homers in his career, though his career .384 OBP is very good. Ozzie Smith was elected on his first try mostly as a result of his ridiculous defense. Hernandez' defense wasn't as good, but his offense was definitely not as bad. He was excellent with the leather, was a very good hitter for a decade, and helped his teams to two World Championships. Longevity is also a factor here, though. Hernandez played in parts of 17 seasons, but he only had 10 seasons with 500+ at-bats.

That said, Hernandez is one of the two best first basemen (currently eligible) who are not in the Hall of Fame and, while he's not a slam-dunk, he is a borderline case for sure. I don't think he stands a good shot at being elected this year or any year by the BBWAA, though the Veteran's Committee could give him the nod sometime down the road. Once Mark McGwire becomes eligible, however, Hernandez' case will be weakened significantly.

Give Me A Break

2003-12-24T10:19:00.000-05:00

Writing five blogs a week is hard work. Well, not necessarily hard, but definitely tiring. That said, SaberMets is going to take a short holiday break, but will be back on Monday with fresh blogs. I'm going to try to get to some of your blog requests, too. So, if you have a topic you would like to see analyzed and/or written about on SaberMets, shoot me an e-mail.

Happy holidays everyone!

Javy Holidays

2003-12-22T23:52:00.000-05:00

I don't suppose that anyone ever prospered as much from a free agent walk year as Javy Lopez has. That's not to say that other players haven't seen bigger paydays when they hit the market, because they have. Had Lopez hit free agency a year earlier, he might have had trouble finding work.

In 2003, Lopez set the single-season record for homeruns by a catcher with 42, breaking Todd Hundley's record of 41. He had the second-highest OPS ever for a catcher at 1.065, trailing only Mike Piazza's 1.070 he put up in 1997. In terms of slugging percentage, Lopez obliterated Piazza's 1997 then-record mark of .638 by ripping pitchers to the tune of a .687 SLG. Lopez' previous career-high SLG? .540 in 1998.

After six moderately-to-very productive seasons at the plate from 1995-2000, Lopez fell off a cliff in 2001 and was clinically dead in 2002. He had the fifth best OPS among major league catchers from 1995-2000, and was just 20 points out of third. After averaging 26 homeruns from 1996-2000 (not counting 1999 when he played only 65 games), he dropped to 17 in 2001 and plummeted to 11 in 2002. His .671 OPS in 2002 was actually lower than his SLG in 2003.

He's never walked much, though his walk totals have been very consistent over the course of his career. Since 1996, he's had no more than 40 walks and no fewer than 26 walks in any full season (100+ games). He's fairly prone to the strikeout, though, averaging 102 whiffs per 162 games. There's also that whole thing about Greg Maddux not pitching to him, which no one has ever really explained to my satisfaction. It wasn't a huge deal, as most catchers typically sit once every five games or so. It was just a bit unsettling why one of this era's best pitchers wanted no part of Javy Lopez' catching abilities.

Beyond his horrific 2001 and 2002 and his otherworldly 2003, Lopez has been a solid hitter throughout his career:

per 162 games

HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS GPA
30 97 .287 .337 .502 .839 .277

Considering the dearth of productive catchers these days (or any days), this is probably a good signing for Baltimore. However, Lopez is already 33 years old, and catchers typically don't put up career years when they're his age. That said, the O's definitely needed to do something to keep up with the rest of the American League East, what with the Devil Rays trading for Geoff Blum and all.

Love Me Non-Tender

2003-12-22T00:31:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, 58 Major League Baseball players were not tendered contracts by their former teams, releasing them into the wild unknown of the free agent market. Non-tendered players can still negotiate with their old teams, but they are free to negotiate with the other 29 teams as well. There are a lot of warm bodies here, many of which are adept at one thing or another. Some of them are even pretty good at baseball. You just have to know what to look for.

Jay Payton: The Mets waited a long time for Payton to live up to his hype. He was drafted out of Georgia Tech, where he was roommates with Nomar Garciaparra. He had a promising rookie season in 2000 where he finished runner-up in the Rookie of the Year voting to Rafael Furcal, hit .291 and belted 17 homeruns. He also had went an unthinkable 5-for-16 in stolen bases (31% success rate). He's spent an exorbitant amount of time on the disabled list in his career in both the minors and majors. He put up a deplorable .298 OBP in 2001 in 361 AB, and was hitting .284 in 2002 before being shipped to the Rockies. In 47 games for the Rocks that year, Payton tore it up, going .335/.376/.606 with his new team. He wasn't able to keep up that torrid pace, but he did post very good numbers in 2003 with Colorado, posting a solid .866 OPS (.287 GPA) with 28 homers and 89 RBI. Sure, a lot of that was Coors field. But he actually hit more homers on the road (15-13), and posted a decent if not sparkling .813 OPS. He's a hacker, so he'll never walk much but will put the ball in play. He doesn't have a great bat for a corner outfielder, and he doesn't have much of an arm, but he always hustled when he was with the Mets, and he would make a decent third outfielder for a bad team or a good fourth outfielder for a good team.

Randall Simon: As far as hackers go, he might rival Kevin Mitnick for the world's biggest. He's averaged one walk every 22.5 at-bats over the course of his career. The upside is that he doesn't strike out much either -- only once every 11.3 at-bats. As a comparison, Whiffy McStrikeout walks once every 22.1 at-bats and K's once every 4.7 at-bats. The difference is that Soriano does a lot more damage when he makes contact than Simon does. Simon has a very good career batting average at .297. His .743 career OPS (.256 GPA), while not completely useless, has no business taking up 300+ at-bats in any major league lineup, particularly one with post-season aspirations. He's got enough pop and makes good enough contact to be fairly valuable as a primary pinch hitter for most teams. His defense is pretty bad, though he can whack a sausage with the best of them.

Danys Baez: This guy will find work. He made an absurd $5.125 million last season to close games for the Indians, but would be a good pickup for a bad team looking for a stopgap closer (*cough*) or a good team looking for a decent setup man. He had a very good 7.85 K/9 ratio last season with 2.87 K/BB. He gave up a few too many longballs, surrendering nine in only 75.2 innings. He somehow lost nine games coming out of the pen, while saving 25 in 35 chances (71% SvPct). He's not an ace reliever by any stretch, but he'll help some team out in 2003.

Braden Looper: He's picked up 41 saves over the past two seasons in 50 chances (82% SvPct), and fits into a similar category as Baez. His strikeout rate is okay (6.25 per nine innings last season), and he did a good job limiting homeruns, coughing up only four in 80.2 innings. His 29 years are three more than Baez, though both could go for around $1-$1.5 million to any number of teams. I'd consider taking a flyer on either of them.

A number of non-tenders will still resign with their old teams, they just might not have been able to come to terms on a deal in time for yesterday's deadline. There are no premier guys here, but certainly puzzle pieces that can fill in a team's holes. For a complete list of non-tenders, check out ESPN.com.

The Future

2003-12-19T01:00:00.000-05:00

For the past three years we had heard the rumblings about a wiry kid from the Dominican Republic who was going to change the face of the New York Mets. They said he had a cannon for an arm. They said he was lightning on the bases. He taught himself to switch hit just a couple of years earlier. He was the most promising Met prospect since Darryl Strawberry. His name was Jose Reyes, and he was the future.

In Spring Training of 2002, an 18 year old Reyes said he would be taking Rey Ordonez' shortstop job. Rey-Rey heard the footsteps ... we all heard the footsteps. As the Mets struggled mightily through that 2002 season, the footsteps were getting louder. The Mets were terrible, a last place team with a first place payroll. They were old, they were underachieving, they were history. There was a glimmering of hope, they said, because the future was on its way.

On June 10, 2003, the future finally arrived. A day before his 20th birthday, Reyes made his big-league debut, going 2-4 with a double and two runs scored. The success was short-lived, though, as he went one-for-his-next-sixteen. The future had hit a bump in the road. He finished June batting .205 with one walk and an OPS of .553. This wasn't the way it was supposed to play out. It wasn't supposed to be like this.

The first chance I had I went to see the kid play at Shea. As the souvenir vendor retrieved my #7 t-shirt from the shelf, he asked, "Why does everybody like this guy? He's hitting .220." My response, all I could think of as it had been etched into my brain, was, "He's the future, as they say."

And so he is. Before an ankle injury ended his season on my birthday (August 31st), Reyes had put together a very solid rookie season. He had a 17-game hitting streak, scored 47 runs in only 69 games, and stole 13 bases in 16 attempts, an 81.3% success rating. His .769 OPS should impress you. It doesn't, you say? How many 20-year old shortstops have put up an OPS that high? Try three.

                  Year    OPS
Alex Rodriguez    1996  1.045
John McGraw       1893   .866
Arky Vaughan      1932   .787
Jose Reyes        2003   .769
Edgar Renteria    1996   .757
Travis Jackson    1924   .754
Tony Kubek        1957   .716
Travis Jackson    1923   .712
Woody English     1927   .690
Garry Templeton   1976   .675

In only 69 games this season, Jose Reyes compiled 12 win shares, which is equal to 4 team wins. Extrapolate those win shares over 162 games and you've got 28. 28! He's 20 years old! 20 win shares is considered an all-star season, while 30 win shares is considered an MVP-caliber season. Here's what the rest of the league's premier shortstops and second-basemen (he's playing second now) did in 2003, pro-rated over 162 games.

                     WS
Alex Rodriguez       32
Marcus Giles         31
Bret Boone           31
Jose Reyes           28
Alfonso Soriano      28
Edgar Renteria       26
Nomar Garciaparra    26
Derek Jeter          25
Jeff Kent            25
Miguel Tejada        25
Jose Vidro           21

Reyes was actually percentage points ahead of Alfonso Soriano. And he's only going to get better folks ... much better. He may never hit 40 homeruns, but he'll hit 20, steal 40 bases, win gold gloves, wreak delicious havoc. The future is now, his name is Jose Reyes. Learn it.

* * * * * * * * * *

If you missed any of this week's blogs, please check them out.

Monday: Catching The Ball ... And Other Great Mysteries Of Life
Tuesday: Rule V Grab Bag
Wednesday: Closing The Deal
Thursday: Johnny Be Good

Johnny Be Good

2003-12-18T00:54:00.000-05:00

Sorry MLB Alumni Association, you're going to have to wait another year for John Franco. It's equal parts class and foolishness that led the Mets to bring Franco back for his 14th season in New York and 20th overall. With my rose-colored glasses safely locked away in their case, I can say with all honesty that John didn't look like he had much left in the tank in 2003. Granted, he had just come back after more than a year out of action recovering from Tommy John surgery. That he made it back at his age is a marvel of science and longevity. However, for the first time, he really looked his age out on the mound.

I'm a John Franco fan. He's never been my favorite player, probably not even close. But I have a lot of respect for the man who has really been a soldier for the Mets. He arrived in New York in 1990 in a swap of two of the elite closers at the time. In exchange for Randy Myers, the Reds sent eastward a 30-year old Brooklynite name John Franco. That year, the Mets were still in decent shape from their late-80's run. The fun didn't last long, though, as the Mets fell apart very quickly thereafter.

Franco was here for the lean years (1991-1992), where the Mets went 142-174, a .449 winning percentage. After that, he was here for the really lean years (1993-1996), where the Mets went 254-326, a .438 winning percentage. He was here for the late-nineties mini-renaissance (1997-2000), where the Mets went 367-282, a .565 winning percentage. And, of course, we'll never forget the downward spiral that followed and continues to this day. Franco has been here through it all and, believe it or not, was a very good pitcher for most of it.

Over the course of his 20 years in baseball, Franco has averaged more than seven strikeouts per nine innings. He sports a career ERA of 2.74 and is second on the all-time saves list with 424 (Lee Smith is the leader with 486). He has a career save percentage of 92%, which is astounding. To put it into perspective a bit, here are some of today's top closers along with their career save percentage:

Player                Sv    BS    Sv%
Rod Beck             286    55   83.9
Jason Isringhausen   130    24   84.4
Ugeth Urbina         206    37   84.8
Armando Benitez      197    35   85.0
Jose Mesa            249    43   85.0
Robb Nen             315    54   85.3
Kaz Sasaki           129    22   85.4
Keith Foulke         143    24   85.6
Billy Wagner         225    38   85.6
Troy Percival        283    45   86.3
Mariano Rivera       283    44   86.5
Trevor Hoffman       352    44   88.9
John Franco          424    37   92.0
John Smoltz          110     9   92.4
Eric Gagne           107     4   96.4

Eric Gagne is off the charts, but Smoltz is considered by many (including myself) to be right behind Gagne in terms of the best in the game right now. Both of these pitchers have been closing games for two seasons (2+ for Smoltz, who saved 10 games in 2001 after, believe it or not, Tommy John surgery), while John Franco has been a closer for two decades. As good as Smoltz has been, he would need to maintain the level of success he's achieved thus far for another 18 seasons in order to equal Franco's feat.

While he was on the disabled list in 2000, his interim replacement Armando Benitez flat-out dominated National League batters. So much so that when Franco returned from the DL he was informed that he wouldn't be getting his job back as he had anticipated (and been told). As usual, Franco handled the demotion with professionalism and dignity that too many of today's players seem to be lacking (think: Jose Guillen). That year and the next (2001), Franco, who was already 40, posted two of the best K/9 of his entire career (9.05 and 8.44, respectively), while picking up 37 holds as the primary setup man for Benitez.

In addition to his impressive career strikeout rate, he has limited opposing batters to 0.57 homeruns per nine innings. As if his pitching wasn't enough to hang his hat on, Franco's altruism is seemingly endless. He works tirelessly for a number of charities, including assisting New York City firefighters since 9/11, and was named honorary "Fireman of the Year" in 2003 by Engine Company 10. He's been a great ballplayer and a better person, and if the Mets want to let him leave this old ball game on his own terms, I don't have any problems with that.

Closing The Deal

2003-12-17T00:32:00.000-05:00

As reported yesterday (espn.com), the Rockies will make Shawn Chaconthe defacto ace of their 2003 staff, their closer in 2004. The Rockies will follow a growing baseball trend made famous most recently by the dominating success of the Braves' John Smoltz and the Dodgers' Eric Gagne.

Smoltz, as you'll recall, was a terrific starting pitcher before arm injuries and necessity led him to the bullpen. He won the NL Cy Young in 1996, the last of six consecutive Cy Youngs awarded to Braves (Tom Glavine won in 1991, with Greg Maddux taking home the hardware from 1992-1995). As a precursor to his conversion to closer, Smoltz pitched in relief of Kevin Millwood in Game 6 of the 1999 NLCS against the Mets. With the Mets trailing by three runs in the top of the 7th, Mike Piazza launched a three-run, opposite-field bomb that tied the game at the time. The Mets went on to blow two leads after that before finally succumbing on a bases loaded walk by Kenny Rogers in the 11th.

While Smoltz made the successful transition from great starting pitcher to great closer, Gagne took a different road. Not that he didn't turn into a great closer, which he did, as his 2003 Cy Young award might attest to. As a starting pitcher, however, he was quite bad. He posted ERAs of 5.15 and 4.75 in 2000-2001 while pitching in one of the best ballparks for pitchers. His two biggest problems as a starter were walks and the longball. He gave up around four walks per nine innings, which will get you into a lot of trouble when you consider his propensity for taters. In 253 innings in 2001-2002, Gagne gave up 44 homeruns, which comes out to more than 1.5 per nine innings.

Gagne the closer and Gagne the starter were almost polar opposites in regard to these two categories. Gagne the closer handed out less than two walks per nine innings, around half of his alternate-universe counterpart. That, however, pales in comparison to his home run differential. As a closer the past two seasons, Gagne has surrendered 8 homeruns in 164.2 innings, or 0.43 ding-dongs per nine innings. Gagne the starter gave up almost four times that amount!

Closers have a huge advantage over starters for two main reasons, both of which are related to the amount of time they spend on the mound. When you're a starting pitcher, a baseball game is much like a marathon for runners (or a love-making session for Sting). They are not afforded the luxury of blowing their proverbial wad right away, as they are expected to pitch 6 innings or more. A pitcher whose fastball may top out in the mid-nineties may be forced to throw most fastballs in the low-nineties to preserve energy and arm strength for his entire start. Breaking balls that might typically have more bite or cut may flatten out more often because of overuse. Closers, on the other hand, are the baseball-equivalent of the two-pump chump. They're in, they go full-throttle for an inning, and then they hit the showers. They are at a significantly lower risk of wearing out because they pitch for such a short period of time each game.

The other natural advantage that closers have is that, since they typically only pitch an inning per game (particularly nowadays), batters have much fewer opportunities to get accustomed to them. In an average game, each batter will see the starting pitcher around three times, which gives them time to study their delivery, their tendencies, and get their timing down. When it comes to facing a team's closer, the batter has no such luck. Particularly with the unbalanced schedule, teams in other divisions or the other league will likely only see a particular closer once or twice per season. Plus, a good closer may only see 3 or 4 batters per appearance, so there's certainly no guarantee that a batter will even get to face that pitcher.

Pitchers with good stuff who struggle as starters stand a good chance of becoming decent relievers or, in some cases, great closers. What does all this mean for Shawn Chacon? Well, much like Gagne, Chacon has been a pretty mediocre starting pitcher. He got a lot of press early in 2003 because he went 11-4 before the All-Star break. Of course, he had a 4.27 ERA in those starts and walked 40 batters in just over 105 innings. He went 0-4 with a 5.68 ERA after the break, and people stopped talking about him. True, he pitched his home games in the third-worst park for pitchers (that's right, Kauffman Stadium and Olympic Stadium were actually worse). Unbelievably, Chacon was a good deal better in Coors Field than he was on the road. His ERA was almost half a run better at home (4.38 to 4.86). One of the main reasons for his mild success this season was that he kept homeruns to a minimum, after giving them out like candy the past two seasons. What makes this turn of events more ridiculous is that he actually had a lower ground ball to fly ball ratio this season than in the previous two. That is to say that he gave up more fly balls but was probably lucky enough that not too many of them cleared the wall.

For his career, Chacon has a lofty 5.10 ERA, a K/BB ratio of 1.43 (not good), and a HR/9 of 1.36. He is only 25 years old, and could show improvement. That being said, I don't think this is a terrible move by the Rockies. If he completely tanks as a closer, he certainly won't be the first. However, if the Rockies end up with a 9th-inning stud on their hands, there will be plenty of nay-sayers eating crow.

Rule 5 Grab Bag

2003-12-16T02:06:00.000-05:00

Every winter, Major League Baseball holds its annual Rule 5 Draft, where teams have an opportunity to select players from other organizations who are left unprotected from their respective 40-man rosters. The rules governing a player drafted in this manner are as follows:

* The drafting team pays the plundered team $50,000 for a player drafted
* Any player drafted must remain on the drafting team's major league club all season
* If the team fails to do this, they must offer the player back to his original team for $25,000

The last two rules only apply to the Major League Phase of the draft. There is also a minor league phase which consists of a draft of Triple-A players and a subsequent draft of Double-A players.

Not every team has to participate in the drafting, but every team is allowed to be drafted from. The biggest success story in the recent history of the draft is Jay Gibbons of the Orioles, who has hit 51 homeruns and driven in 169 runs over the past two seasons.

The Mets were more active than most teams this year, drafting a total of four players while surrendering two players. Here is a quick analysis of the more prominent picks:

Mets Got

Major League Draft: Round 1 - Frank Brooks, LHP, Pittsburgh
In a pre-arranged deal, the Mets traded Brooks to Oakland for a player to be named later. This has to be someone from Oakland's 40-man roster. There's a good chance it might be a former Met, either Marco Scutaro or Matt Watson, who were both claimed by the A's after the season ended.

Brooks was originally a starter in the Phillies organization. He was drafted out of Florida State in the 13th round in 1999. He was moved to the bullpen in 2002, and has done a pretty good job there. In 157.1 innings has a reliever, Brooks has struck out 153 batters while walking 63. His homerun rate was terrific, giving up only 11 over that span, good for a 0.63 HR/9 rate. He's already 25, but he seems like the kind of bargain-basement guy Billy Beane likes coming out of the bullpen. He could provide league-average relief for league-minimum dollars.

Here's hoping the PTBNL is Marco Scutaro.

Triple-A Draft: Round 1 - Eric Valent, OF, Cincinnati
Another guy who was originally drafted by the Phillies, Valent was a 1st round pick in 1998 out of UCLA. He's 26 already, and it'd be a stretch to call him a prospect at this point. He posted a pitiful .308 OBP in 2003 for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre of the International League (AAA) to go along with a not-so-hot .367 SLG. He showed some pop in the lower-level minor leagues, hitting 20, 22, and 21 homers from 1999-2001. It looks like AAA pitching has done him in, as he's really fallen off a cliff in the last two seasons. He has 47 games of Major League experience, notching a razor-thin .403 OPS. Jim Duquette says that Valent will compete for a bench spot in Spring Training. He can't possibly mean with the big club.

Additional Picks
Lance Caraccioli, LHP, Cleveland
Bryan Edwards, RHP, Milwaukee

Mets Lost

Major League Draft: Round 1 - David Mattox, RHP, Cincinnati
Mattox was drafted by the Mets out of Anderson College. An 11th round pick in 2001, Mattox is 23 and pitched last season for Binghamton of the Eastern League (AA). Baseball America said the following regarding his selection:

A converted infielder in college, Mattox didn't have much mileage on his arm when the Mets originally drafted him out of Anderson (S.C.) College in the 11th round in 2001. He looks like a polished pitcher, though, as he operates with four quality pitches, including a low-90s fastball and a plus changeup, and command. "His arm works good, he has a good delivery and four pitches," Mets scouting director Jack Bowen said. "On the right night, he has four average to above major league pitches and an outstanding change."

He doesn't give up many homeruns (7 in 113.1 innings last year). His K/9 rate is good (6.83), and is K/BB is pretty good (2.15). He was dominant at times in the lower minors and has always done a good job keeping the ball in the park, but it'll be a tough jump for him from AA to the big show. The Reds will certainly give him a shot, but he's in a tough division there, so I don't expect him to fair very well.

Major League Draft: Round 1 - Lenny DiNardo, LHP, Boston
This one stings a bit. DiNardo is a bit of a queer egg. He was actually drafted by the Red Sox out of Stetson University in the 3rd round of the 2001 draft. He allegedly used to hit 90 whilst in college, though his fastball couldn't touch 90 nowadays if it were driving a Porsche. Baseball America had this to say:

DiNardo's impressive AFL campaign certainly didn't hurt his chances of being selected this year. While he allowed 22 hits in 18 innings, he mowed down hitters by keeping them off balance and he struck out 27 and walked just three. He faces a significant challenge in sticking on the Red Sox roster, however, because his fastball is timed at just 83-87 mph with good cutting movement. DiNardo touched 90 mph regularly in college, but scouts believe he became so reliant upon his cutter that it cost him velocity and arm strength.

He has good control and somehow manages to strike guys out. He has a career minor league K/BB rate of 2.72 and a K/9 of 9.34 to go with a ridiculous 0.24 HR/9 ratio. He's the kind of guy a smart organization would pick up, but he is a good bet to be coming back to the Mets sometime this season. With the Red Sox in the thick of a pennant race, it may be difficult to keep DiNardo on the Major League roster all season.

Additional Picks
Ender Chavez, OF, Montreal
John Wilson, C, Montreal

Catching The Ball ... And Other Great Mysteries Of Life

2003-12-15T00:03:00.000-05:00

Back in October, I wrote none too favorably about Mike Cameron. With the Mets having signed Cameron on Saturday to a three-year, $19.5 million deal (backloaded, with an option for a fourth year at $6.5 million), I decided to revisit my analysis of him.

The mistake I made a couple of months ago was that I only considered Cameron's offensive contributions, which are below average for an outfielder. In particular, Cameron's strikeout rate is as high as Grant Roberts. The flaw in my evaluation of Cameron was that I neglected to consider his defensive contributions to a game, which are considerable.

There are a number of metrics that sabermetricians use to evaluate defense: Many are useful, none are perfect. ESPN.com uses Range Factor (RF) and Zone Rating (ZR). RF is the total numbers of outs that a player contributes (putouts plus assists) per nine innings. ZR is the percentage of balls that a player gets to within his defensive zone, as defined by Stats, Inc.

A third stat that I like to use is Win Shares. Win Shares is a system developed by Bill James who, as it turns out, developed many of the statistics that I and other sabermetrically-inclined individuals use on a daily basis. For a great review and synopsis of Win Shares, check out this article by Rob Neyer. The gist of Win Shares is that, by using James' extremely complex methodology, one can divide a team's actual wins into thirds. So the 2003 Mets, who won 66 games, had a total of 198 win shares. The cumulative total of offensive and defensive contributions by all players on the 2003 Mets will add up to these 198 "thirds" of wins.

Last season, Mets outfielders posted the following win shares:

Player          2003 Defensive Win Shares
Roger Cedeno              1.79
Jeff Duncan               1.57
Timo Perez                1.47
Cliff Floyd               1.26
Raul Gonzalez             1.22
Tsuyoshi Shinjo           1.19
Joe McEwing               0.20
Prentice Redman           0.12
Matt Watson               0.05
Tony Clark                0.01
                          ----
Total                     8.88

Mike Cameron had 7.73 win shares in 2003 ... by himself! That's roughly one fewer win share than the entire Mets revolving door outfield. He had more defensive win shares than any outfielder in baseball. Torii Hunter? 6.14 win shares. Carlos Beltran? 6.50 win shares. Andruw Jones? 6.04. No outfielder contributes as much defensively as Mike Cameron.

Plus, there's reason to believe that he'll be even more valuable to the Mets. Last year, Cameron was flanked by Ichiro and Randy Winn, who both finished in the top ten in the AL in defensive win shares. The Mets ... well, they were the Mets. No offense to Cliff Floyd and whomever will be patrolling right field (Brian Jordan?), but Cameron playing centerfield will be like parking a Ferrari between two Hyundais.

What makes me feel even better about this signing is that Billy Beane wanted him bad. Regarding his unsuccessful pursuit of the gold-glove outfielder, Beane said that Cameron:

"... in terms of value and how much he impacts a defense, is the best player out there. I could show you how many runs Mike saves a year, and what he means to a team. He'd be great for the Mets. That's why I don't want them to get him. With that ballpark, and that [fly-ball] pitching staff, Mike would be perfect."

The Mets put together an offseason plan that focused on making the team more athletic with improved defense up-the-middle. With last week's signing of Kazuo Matsui and this weekend's haul of Mike Cameron, they've done a great job executing that plan while maintaining payroll flexibility and restricting contract lengths to three years or less. Jim Duquette has also done a great job of not mortgaging the future by not sacrificing draft picks for either of his two signings (Cameron was non-tendered and Matsui was a Japanese free agent). The Mets may not be contending for a playoff spot this year, but they will be much improved over last season and will provide plenty of hope for the future of this organization.

Pass The Pepto

2003-12-12T01:09:00.000-05:00

With the announcement yesterday that Andy Pettitte had signed with the Astros, you would have thought someone had shot the President. As I listened to ESPN Radio, Yankee fan after Yankee fan called in with over-the-top melodrama such as:

"I feel sick to my stomach."
"This is a dark day for the New York Yankees."
"The Yankees as we know it are over."

I've never seen such remorse over the loss of a number-three starter. I mean, for a guy with a career ERA that approaches 4.00, Yankee fans were reacting as if all of George Steinbrenner's millions blew away and took the Yankees' 26 World Championships along with them. I talked about how overvalued Andy Pettitte is yesterday, and Rob Neyer has written an excellent piece on it as well. He argues, quite convincingly I might add, that the recent addition of Javier Vazquez and the impending addition of Kevin Brown will give the Yankees a much more formidable staff than the one comprised of Roger Clemens and Pettitte.

... if Brown and Vazquez are healthy in 2004, they'll represent a significant upgrade from Clemens and Pettitte, whose impressive won-lost records benefited from the Yankees' potent lineup.

Could a Yankees rotation that includes Brown stack up with the Red Sox's new Schilling-ful squad? You'd better believe it.

The Yankees rotation next season will sport three pitchers who were staff aces last season, plus the best pitcher Cuba had to offer in Jose Contreras. That's four pitchers who are each better than anyone starting for the Mets this season.

* * * * * * * * * *
ESPN.com: Vina, Tigers agree to $6 million deal

Un-be-freaking-lievable. Better them than us, that's what I say. There were rumors over the past few weeks that the Mets were interested in Fernando Vina to play second base at Shea. If Vina is worth $3 million (which he's not), the $6.7 million Kaz Matsui is getting looks like the deal of the century. You've gotta love the enthusiasm of new teammate Dmitri Young:

"I'm excited, to tell you the truth. I played against him in the National League, and he's going to really help us in the leadoff spot because he'll walk, bunt and hit the other way. And his great defense speaks for itself."

I'll bite. Let's break down this statement into it's quantifiable parts...

Great defense

He did win back-to-back gold gloves in 2001 and 2002. However, he wasn't even as good in those seasons as the Tigers' second basemen were in 2003.

                      RF     ZR
Fernando Vina '01    4.84   .849
Fernando Vina '02    4.72   .810
Warren Morris '03    5.55   .839
Ramon Santiago '03   5.04   .736
Shane Halter '03     5.23   .840

RF: Range Factor ((PO + A) * 9 divided by innings)
ZR: Zone rating. The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.

Unless we also consider the triumverate of Warren Morris, Ramon Santiago, and Shane Halter great defensive second-basemen, this one is a bust.

He'll Walk

Taking this to its logical extreme, it's difficult to argue its truthfulness. He does indeed walk. But does he walk a lot? Hardly. His career high was 54 walks in 1998 with Milwaukee. Since then, his walk totals are: 14 (37 games), 36, 32, 44, and 11 (61 games). Hardly Nick Johnson. Certainly not the type of discipline numbers you'd like to see from your leadoff hitter, particularly if you are paying him $3 million a year.

So he doesn't walk and he doesn't play particularly great defense. He must hit well, right? If only he did.

        OPS    GPA
1999   .670   .235
2000   .778   .271
2001   .775   .265
2002   .671   .234
2003   .691   .235

Tigers president Dave Dombrowski had the following to say:

"There's no question we're in a mode that we can be very active and aggressive in our conversations with agents and other teams. It's great. It's an exciting time for our organization. We're looking to upgrade at second base, shortstop, outfield, starting pitching."

In my estimation, it looks like they still need an upgrade at second base, shortstop, outfield, and starting pitching.

Much Ado About Nothing Much

2003-12-11T00:08:00.000-05:00

With reports flying suggesting that Andy Pettitte is close to signing a three-year deal with the Astros, all I keep reading and hearing from New York media outlets is how it would be an atrocity for the Yankees to let Pettitte go. The word from those in the know is that George Steinbrenner has lost his mind, and is engineering most of the Yankees' offseason moves in direct conflict with the opinions of GM Brian Cashman and manager Joe Torre.

I've never really understood what all of the hub-bub is about Andy Pettitte. He's a nice pitcher, don't get me wrong. But he's on the verge of signing a contract worth $10 million per year or more and, despite his wonderful balk move and devout catholicism, I'm not exactly convinced that he's worth eight figures. I'm a life-long Mets fan and, as such, a life-long Yankee hater. Be that as it may, I won't let it stand in my way of an objective analysis of Mr. Pettitte.

The following are regular seasons stats for two American League pitchers from 1999-2003.

             WL%   ERA   K/9   K/BB   HR/9
Player A    .626   3.97  6.70  2.06   1.01
Player B    .656   4.12  6.58  2.35   0.75

These two players have posted very similar stats over the past five seasons. Player A has the edge in ERA and K/9, while Player B has an edge in K/BB (better control) and HR/9. Let's check out what batters have done against these two over that same span.

         Player A      Player B
         OPS  GPA      OPS  GPA
1999    .741 .254     .808 .274
2000    .733 .249     .738 .252
2001    .625 .212     .713 .241
2002    .729 .244     .681 .233
2003    .751 .253     .713 .240

Pretty similar here too. Player A was better from 1999-2001, while Player B was a little better for 2002-2003. Player A made $6.875 million last season and his team, despite being in the thick of the pennant race, tried to trade him at the deadline last season. Player B made $11.5 million last season, pitched in the World Series, and has a cleft chin.

If you haven't already guessed, Player B is Andy Pettitte. Player A is none other than Rock look-alike Freddy Garcia. Pettitte's next contract will be in the $11-13 million dollar range, while Garcia will be lucky to see Kelvim Escobar money ($6.25 million annually). Why would Pettitte be likely to command so much more money? My two best explanations are:

a) his post-season performance
b) he's a lefty

Many applaud Pettitte's success in the numerous Yankee post-seasons he has pitched in, and how he really "steps it up" in the big games. But has he?

                 ERA   WHIP   K/9   K/BB   HR/9
Regular Season   3.94  1.38   6.40  2.20   0.72
Post-season      4.49  1.33   4.96  2.05   1.03

Granted, the post-season is against the best teams in the league and, in most cases, the best hitters in the league as well. That notwithstanding, you'd have a tough time convincing me that he was better in October (and November) than in all other months. In fact, by almost any measure, he was easily worse in the playoffs than during the regular season, even after considering the strength of competition.

But what of his ability to succeed under the bright lights of New York where others have failed? True, not every player is cut out to play in the big city. If I could put a dollar value on that, however, I might also be able to quantify all of Derek Jeter's intangibles in hopes of explaining the logic behind paying a poor defensive shortstop with some pop $19 million per season.

On The Move ... For Better Or For Worse

2003-12-10T18:18:00.000-05:00

With the deadline to offer players arbitration having passed on Sunday, a lot of pieces are starting to fall into place ... for some teams anyway. Yesterday's frenzy included no less than six free agent pitchers changing teams. How do the deals look?

Team: Atlanta Braves
Player: John Thomson
Terms: Two years, $7 million

The Mets acquired Thomson at the trade deadline in 2002 for perennial underachiever Jay Payton, pothead Mark Corey, and Robert Stratton, who has hit 165 minor league homeruns in 2,371 at-bats with -- are you sitting down? -- 982 strikeouts! He's shown some patience, walking 255 times, but he's a straight-up hacker in the mold of Dave Kingman.

He pitched okay down the stretch for the Mets, and signed a one-year deal with the Rangers in 2003. Here's how he's done the past two seasons relative to the league he pitched in:

                       ERA    WHIP  K/9   K/BB   HR/9
John Thomson '03       4.85   1.30  5.64  2.78   1.12
American League '03    4.52   1.39  6.11  1.93   1.11

John Thomson '02       4.71   1.30  5.30  2.43   1.39
National League '02    4.10   1.37  6.76  1.94   1.01

Thomson has shown pretty good control, keeping his walk rate better than the league. However, by almost any other measure, he has been worse than his respective league over the past two seasons. He has played in two of the best hitters parks in baseball in Coors Field (2002) and Arlington Stadium (2003), so let's say that pushes his numbers closer to the league average. You can never underestimate Leo Mazzone's impact on mediocre pitchers, but Thomson isn't going to be a worldbeater for the Braves.

$3.5 million per year is hardly breaking the bank, though it may be a bit much for a league average pitcher in today's buyer's market. He'll likely be the fifth starter for the Braves, who don't have a number one and, I would argue, don't even have a number two. Of course, they didn't have an ace last year and still ran away with the NL East.

The Lost Art Of Platooning

2003-12-09T10:46:00.000-05:00

In the late nineties and early aughts, baseball teams threw around top dollar and multi-year deals to any Joe Shmoe or Todd Zeile who came along. However, that practice has changed alongside baseball's economic landscape. Teams are busy trying to undo the mistakes made by prior administrations and, short of inventing the baseball equivalent of , have to trim payroll wherever they can. Thus the now-ubiquitous event known as the non-tender.

When a team decides not to tender a contract to a player, it is usually because they fear that the potential arbitration settlement is too high. Typically, players who have completed three years of service in the major leagues are eligible for salary arbitration. The exception are those known as "super-two" players. According to the 2003-2006 MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, this is:

a Player with at least two but less than three years of
Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if: (a)
he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately
preceding season; and (b) he ranks in the top seventeen percent
(17%) (rounded to the nearest whole number) in total service in the
class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of
Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86
days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.
If two or more Players are tied in ranking, ties shall be broken
consecutively based on the number of days of service accumulated
in each of the immediately preceding seasons. If the Players remain
tied, the final tie breaker will be by lot.

After three years of service (or super-two), a player has three arbitration years. A team can offer arbitration to such a player, and the player is required to accept. This results in a one-year contract with a salary to be determined in an arbitration hearing. After those three seasons, the player no longer has to accept salary arbitration and can become an unrestricted free agent.

Until recently, a team would seemingly always offer arbitration to their arbitration-eligible players (between 3 and 6 years of service). However, with the pursestrings tightened, more and more players are given their unconditional release and sent off to find work elsewhere. While many of these players are crummy, it is certainly possible to find some affordable production in the non-tender bargain bin. Which brings us to...

The Platoon. The idea behind platooning is to take two complementary players who, while not very impressive individually, actually combine to be a pretty useful if not very productive player. With a modicum of cash to spend, one can put together some decent platoon positions among the many warm bodies on the non-tender bonfire. For a semi-complete list of non-tenders, check out this post at Batter's Box.

Player            AB    AVG   OBP   SLG  HR   RBI
Reggie Sanders    136  .301  .368  .647  12   33    (vs LHP)
Matt Stairs       273  .304  .402  .582  18   53    (vs RHP)

The 136 at-bats for Sanders against left-handed pitching this past season is a small sample, I'll admit. But he's posted a .970 OPS (.314 GPA) since 2001 in 386 at-bats). Sanders would probably cost $1.5 million for one season, with Stairs probably getting around $1 million. So that's $2.5 million for a player who could put up a .950 OPS, 35 HR and 100 RBI.

There are a number of other players who would provide productive platoon splits. The following non-tenders have put up very productive numbers over the past three seasons against lefties or righties:

Player            AB    AVG   OBP   SLG  HR   RBI
Andres Galarraga  291  .289  .356  .495  14    49   (vs LHP)
Tony Graffanino   304  .293  .367  .497  11    37   (vs LHP)
Brian Jordan      280  .318  .381  .582  18    71   (vs LHP)
Eric Karros       307  .316  .389  .515  12    44   (vs LHP)
Carl Everett     1309  .290  .367  .509  47   170   (vs RHP)
Fred McGriff      950  .297  .380  .532  56   175   (vs RHP)

All of these players can be had for a reasonably small contract, and can provide good production against one type of pitcher. It's an inexpensive way to maximize production out of a particular position.

It's A Maddux Maddux Maddux Maddux World

2003-12-08T09:33:00.000-05:00

Before I get into the main topic, ESPN.com's Peter Gammons is reporting that the Mets and Kazuo Matsui have agreed to a three-year deal worth $6.7 million annually. There have been reports and articles all weekend to this effect, but now it seems almost official. If this is the case, I will break down what the Mets can reasonably expect out of Matsui later this week.

* * * * * * * * * *

The Atlanta Braves have cut ties to their second-longest-tenured player, Greg Maddux (John Smoltz has the longest current tenure). With the arbitration deadline passing last night, Maddux's eleven-year run as (usually) the ace of the Braves staff will be coming to an end. Maddux's dominance has diminished as he has gotten on in years, but he is still a productive pitcher and will undoubtedly help whomever he signs with this offseason (The Padres are the early favorites to secure his services).

From 1992-1995, Maddux put together one of the most dominant streaks in baseball history, taking home four consecutive Cy Young Awards, a feat matched only by The Big Unit from 1999-2002. During those four seasons, Maddux had an average ERA of 1.98, posting individual ERAs of 2.18, 2.36, 1.56, and 1.63. The last two of those seasons were downright silly. He surrendered a grand total of 12 homeruns in 411.2 innings in 1994 and 1995, going 35-8 over that span.

From 1992-1995 he averaged 7.6 innings per start, and averaged a dead-ball-era-esque eight innings per start in 1994. In 2003, that average fell to fewer than six innings per start. The one thing that has accelerated Maddux's decline more than anything else has been his strikeout rate.

Year   IP     K/9    K/BB   HR/9
2000  249.1   6.86   4.52   0.67
2001  233.0   6.68   6.41   0.77
2002  199.1   5.33   2.62   0.63
2003  218.1   5.11   3.76   0.99

His strikeouts per nine innings have decreased in each of the past three seasons, which is fairly common among pitchers as they careen towards retirement. Maddux has never had an overpowering fastball, but his movement and command have been so impeccable that he has actually racked up a fair amount of strikeouts over the years. In fact, in 1994 he averaged 7.77 K's per nine innings, the best of his career.

For most pitchers, when the strikeout rate goes so does success. Maddux has been able to keep the wheels from falling off entirely by limiting the number of walks and homeruns he has given up. He gave up only 33 walks this season, averaging one per 6.6 innings, a terrific rate. However, his homerun rate, while still decent at just under one-per-nine, was the highest of his career. His ERA (3.96), OPS against (.715) and GPA against (.238) were all higher than any season since his rookie year in 1987 (5.61 ERA, .822 OPS, .267 GPA).

You can't really blame the Braves for declining to offer Greg Maddux arbitration. They offered it to him last season and were burned. Thinking it would give them more time to negotiate with him, the Braves ended up holding their junk when Maddux was awarded the largest single-season arbitration settlement of $14.75 million. As a result, the Braves were way over-budget and were forced to trade Kevin Millwood to the Phillies.

Maddux will be sure to catch on with somebody, probably for one or two seasons with a vesting option for an additional year. I wouldn't expect him to get much more than $6-7 million per. That's a far cry from the nigh $15 million he netted this season, but as Curt Schilling pointed out prior to his negotiations with the Red Sox, that's still money on top of money he'll never spend.

The Empire Strikes Back ... Or Do They?

2003-12-05T10:07:00.000-05:00

Never one to be outdone, Boss George yesterday spearheaded a trade with Les Expos, acquiring Montreal's staff ace and great human being Javier Vazquez for on-base machine and my favorite (former) Yankee Nick Johnson, as well as a sack of bats and a sack of balls (see: choad).

Randol Doyle Choate was initially a player-to-be-named later in this deal, with "later" turning out to be around an hour's time. He's 28 years old, and has played parts of the last four seasons with the Yankees. In 91 big league innings, Choate has struck out 64 batters while walking 51. The K/9 isn't too bad (6.40), but the K/BB is pretty scary (1.25). He's done a good job keeping the ball in the yard, surrendering only four homers in those 91 innings. His career numbers with Columbus of the International League (AAA) are quite good, striking out 129 and walking 56 in 147 innings, while giving up only 6 longballs. He's hardly a prospect at this point, but he could certainly contribute 70 league-average-or-better innings for a lot of major league clubs ... just not the Yankees.

What was once a glut of pinstriped Riveras (Mariano, Ruben, Juan) has been whittled down to a single one. Thursday morning I heard somewhere that Juan Rivera was almost a dealbreaker for the Yankees. After pissing myself, I felt much better. On the bright side, Rivera tore apart left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a 1.018 OPS (.326 GPA). On the dim side, that was only in 50 at-bats. On the bleak side, almost everything else. He actually posted an .879 OPS (.293 GPA) in 772 AAA at-bats since 2001, with 29 homers and 128 RBIs. It all fell apart, as it does for so many, when he joined the big club. If the Expos can re-sign Vladimir Guerrero, Rivera could play left-field with Brad Wilkerson shifting over to center, leaving Endy Chavez and his .648 OPS (.221 GPA) twiddling his thumbs.

Nick Johnson is a very good batter. He's adequate in the field, but at the plate he really seems to get it. It? Yep, he gets it. The guy walked 70 times in 324 AB, striking out only 57 times. He even managed 14 homers while posting a team-high .422 OBP. I like this kid, and I think he has a huge upside.

That being said, the Yankees had to make this deal. They pick up the Expos best pitcher, and certainly one of the better young non-Cub starters in the National League. Is he better than Curt Schilling? No, definitely not. Is he better than Bartolo Colon? Maybe. Thinner? Definitely. Cheaper? No chance. Will the Yankees sign Colon anyway now that they have Vazquez? They might. Can I write in sentence fragments for an entire blog? We'll just have to see. Vazquez is a young, accomplished, level-headed strikeout pitcher that the Yankees aging rotation desperately needed. He doesn't walk a lot of guys, but will give up his share of homeruns. That being said, he'll likely be the Yankees #2 guy behind The Moose, and a damned fine one at that.

It's hard to fault either team for making this deal. The Yankees needed an upgrade to the rotation, and needed a frontline guy to keep up with the Red Sox. The Expos needed to shed payroll to make an offer to Vlady, and got a very good hitter with a huge ceiling along with some spare parts.

Advantage: Push

THIS JUST IN: In an article in today's Montreal Gazette, Pat Hickey doesn't think the Yankees made out so well:

The Yankees bolstered their starting rotation yesterday when they acquired Javier Vazquez from the Expos for first-baseman Nick Johnson, outfielder Juan Rivera and left-handed relief pitcher Randy Choate.

Or did they?

The deal is the Yankees' response to the Red Sox acquiring Curt Schilling, but the only edge Vazquez, 27, has over Schilling, 37, is the fact he's a lot younger. He's no Schilling and he'll have to be a lot more consistent than he was here if he's going to fill any of the holes left in the Yankees' rotation. Roger Clemens is definitely gone and there is no assurance that David Wells or Andy Pettitte will be back. They are all better than Vazquez.

Bombers Cough Up Millions For Middle Relief ... Yankee Dogs Now $18

2003-12-04T09:33:00.000-05:00

The Yankees excess is hard at work again, this time (over)spending on warm bodies to set up Mariano Rivera. Tom Gordon signed a two-year deal yesterday worth $7.2 million, and Ontario's own Paul Quantrill signed a similar two-year pact worth $6.8 million. Add to that the soon-to-be deals for Felix "Don't Call me Gil" Heredia (two years, $3.6 million) and Gabe White (two years, $6 million), plus the $10 million they owe Steve Karsay through 2005 and the $2.4 million Chris Hammond will make in 2004, and the Anskys will have $36 million tied up in middle relief over the next couple of seasons. That's more than half of what the Brewers will spend on their entire roster over the same span.

                      2001               2002               2003

                 K/9  K/BB  HR/9    K/9  K/BB  HR/9    K/9  K/BB  HR/9
Tom Gordon      13.30 4.19  0.79   10.13 3.00  0.63   11.07 2.94  0.49
Paul Quantrill   6.29 4.83  0.65    6.22 2.12  0.12    5.12 2.93  0.23
Gabe White       6.25 1.81  2.39    6.79 4.10  0.50    5.59 3.63  1.35
Felix Heredia    7.20 1.75  1.54    5.33 1.19  0.86    4.66 1.36  1.03

The first thing that immediately jumps out at me is Flash Gordon's strikeout rates. He was seventh in the majors this season in K/9 with 11.07 (among pitchers with at least 40 ip). That's better than Billy Wagner (10.99), John Smoltz (10.21), and Octavio Dotel (10.03). He had Tommy John surgery four years ago, and has missed a good deal of playing time over the past five seasons, including much of 1999 and all of 2000. If he stays healthy, he'll give the Yankee bullpen the power arm (aside from M-Riv) they've sorely missed during the past few seasons of incomprehensible failure.

Paul Quantrill, while no doubt aided by the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium (park factors of 93 and 91 the past two seasons), should provide some much-needed relief, and will offer a change of pace from Gordon's hard stuff. He has very good control and, while he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, gives up a ridiculously low number of homeruns. Last season he gave up one longball for approximately every 36 innings he pitched. While astounding, it was put to shame by his 2002 rate of one every 72 innings. That would be like a starting pitcher giving up one homerun for every 12 six-inning starts he makes. He is an extreme groundball pitcher, giving up almost twice as many groundballs as flyballs over the last three years. While this helps keep the ball in the yard, it may not be the best complement to the Yankees infield defense.

Gabe White and Felix Heredia are probably league-average relievers. They both pitched pretty well for the Yankees last season, which apparently was enough for Boss George to pay them like they were replacement-level middle-infielders.

Quite frankly, the Yankee bullpen was s*** last season. With Heredia and White effectively replacing the 2003 versions of themselves, Paul Quantrill and Tom Gordon (when he plays), will be a huge upgrade over the jigsaw puzzle suckfest that has dominated the middle innings at the Stadium of late.

Castillo Resigns With Marlins ... Anonymous Mets Blogger Giddy With Disbelief

2003-12-04T09:32:00.000-05:00

I would like to personally thank the Florida Marlins for signing Luis Castillo so the Mets didn't have to. I'm sorry, but I guess I'm the only one who wasn't jumping out of my shorts to give away $16 million over three years for a .731 OPS (256 GPA), which is exactly what Castillo has posted since 2001. Granted, he's a gold-glover at second base, the second-most important defensive position after shortstop. You want stolen bases? Look elsewhere. Castillo has been caught almost a third of the time over the past three seasons (102 SB in 152 chances).

The Mets will apparently now turn their attention to Kazuo Matsui, who will probably get a deal similar to that of Hideki Matsui ($21 million over three years). I would sooner do that than spend $16 million on Luis. That is, of course, provided it doesn't require moving Jose Reyes to second base. Mets management is apparently split on this idea. Ownership is in favor of moving Reyes, while GM Jim Duquette and other executives are opposed to the idea (as am I).

Of course, the Mets will be bidding against no less than five other teams (Yankees, Orioles, Mariners, Dodgers, Angels), with the Dodgers, Angels, and Orioles certain to have an opening for him at shortstop. I've read that he won't want to share the Yankee spotlight with Hideki Matsui, preferring to be the prominent Japanese player on any team (cross Seattle of the list?).

There is also talk about the Mets signing Brooklyn's own Rich Aurilia to play second base, or third base with Ty Wigginton moving to second. Aside from his ridiculously-out-of-character year in 2001 (.324 BA, 37 HR, 97 RBI), he's been a pretty mediocre hitter, sporting a .278 career BA, .331 career OBP, and .444 career slugging.

An intriguing possibility that hasn't really been mentioned yet would be trading for Jose Vidro, who is a very good, fairly patient switch hitter with some pop. He's scheduled to make $7 million this year. Maybe the Mets could put together a nice little package of prospects and ship them to Montreal for Vidro and Livan Hernandez ($6 million). That would allow the Expos to free up $13 million in 2004, which might leave them enough wiggle room to afford Javier Vazquez' arbitration award and bring back Vlad Guerrero. I might even be willing to take on arbo-eligible Orlando Cabrera (who won a gold glove in 2001) to play third base. Hernandez and Cabrera would be one-year trials who could be dumped after '04 if they suck it up Robbie Alomar-style.

D-Backs Bag Sexton ... Cancel Pending Order With Wind Tunnels, Inc.

2003-12-02T08:30:00.000-05:00

Now that the chips have fallen in the Curt Schilling deal, the D-Backs wasted no time consummating a follow-up deal with the Beermakers, trading a grab bag of would-be prospects and spare parts for the only thing that previously separated the Brewers from any other minor league ballclub.

The centerpiece of this deal is Richie Sexson, whose 465 whiffs over the past three seasons exceed all but the holy trinity of Jose Hernandez (550), Jim Thome (506), and Mike Cameron (468). Fortunately for Arizona, Sexson has looked a lot more like Thome than offensive wastelands Hernandez and Cameron. He's averaged 40 homers and 117 RBI over that same span and, while he's not quite up to the walking-machine status of Thome, he has increased his walk totals each season as well (60, 70, 98). His GPA this season was .308, 5th best among ML first-basemen (Helton, Delgado, Giambi, Thome).

My favorite line from the ESPN.com article has got to be this one:

With Shea Hillenbrand at third base, Arizona has a pair of solid right-handed bats in what has been, in recent years, a lineup dominated by left-handed hitters.

I don't know about you guys, but the last time I checked, a .302 OBP is not what I would consider "solid". That's what Shea Hillenbrand put up for the D-Backs in 330 AB. Small sample size? He has gotten on base at a .314 clip since 2001 (1617 AB), with a grand total of 62 walks.

The major league "talent" the Brewers got back in this deal is marginal. Here they are with their OPS and GPA from 2003:

Player           OPS   GPA
Junior Spivey   .759 .255
Craig Counsell  .631 .224
Chad Moeller    .770 .260
Lyle Overbay    .898 .308 (2002 Tuscon AAA)

Overbay is the only one here who isn't a waste of a roster spot, though Moeller's .260 GPA would have been good for 7th among big league catchers, between Ramon Hernandez (.263) and Paul Lo Duca (.245). I had Moeller in a fantasy league this season, but Arizona manager Bob Brenly stopped playing him for some unknown reason. He apparently favored Rod Barajas' razor-thin .201 GPA. Overbay struggled a bit this year with the big club, posting a .767 OPS and a respectable .265 GPA. He'll take over at first base for Milwaukee, seamlessly replacing the strikeout void Sexson leaves behind (67 in 254 AB).

The other player of note in this deal is Jorge De La Rosa, who the D-Backs had just acquired minutes earlier from the Red Sox in the Curt Schilling swap. De La Rosa notched a 2.80 ERA with Portland of the Eastern League, striking out 102 while walking only 36 in 99.2 innings. He also did a good job keeping the ball in the park, giving up only six homers. He's only 22, and could have a bright future with Milwaukee, until he no longer fits under their $30 million payroll umbrella and is traded to the D-Backs for prospects.

A pretty good trade for Arizona, as they get the sluggardly slugger they've been looking for. Sexson will cost them $8.6 million this year, but they were able to jettison Counsell and his $3.15 million along with Spivey and his $2,367,500 price tag.

Advantage: Diamondbacks

Update on the Pups

2003-11-29T12:30:00.000-05:00

John Sickels answered some mailbag questions today in Down On The Farm, one of them regarding Mets prospect Victor Diaz. You can read that article here. He also wrote about Mets third-base stud David Wright the other day.

What's Your GPA?

2003-11-28T16:58:00.000-05:00

Earlier this week, Aaron Gleeman introduced a new metric that he quasi-narcissistically calls GPA, or the Gleeman Production Average. While hardly perfect (what metric is?), GPA serves a definite purpose in the sabermetric community. Though it is not as accurate as EqA, it is far simpler to calculate, and is a bit of an upgrade over OPS (OBP + SLG).

OPS, while clever and easily-derivable, has a major inherent flaw. It assigns equal weight to on-base percentage and slugging percentage, when it is quite clear that OBP is the more valuable asset. The most basic example to this effect is the following:

Team A and Team B both have an OPS of 1.000. Team A has an OBP of 1.000 and a SLG of .000 (meaning they walk every plate appearance), while Team B has an OBP of .333 and a SLG of .666 (they get a double for every three at-bats). In this scenario, Team B will score an awful lot of runs. Team A, however, will score an inifinite number of runs, as they will never make an out (barring baserunning gaffes). So, while both teams have an identical OPS, their production is significantly different.

Granted, this is an extreme example, but it does get the point across that OBP is more important to a team than SLG. But how much more important? Tangotiger, one of the more prominent sabermetric minds on the internet, wrote a couple of articles (this one and this one), where he breaks down the importance of OBP relative to SLG. He concluded that OBP is roughly 1.7-2.0 times more important than SLG.

Aaron decided to use 1.8 as the multiplier, and, in an effort to make the result more recognizable, divided the whole lot by four, to force a scale similar to batting average. So, the formula for GPA was born:

[(OBP * 1.8) + SLG] / 4

Aaron has posted a quick reference guide which provides 2003 GPA rankings by league, team, and position. Based on Aaron's work, I have put together a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet based on ESPN.com's Sortable Stats for all qualified MLB batters in 2003. The spreadsheet contains all of the regular hitting statistics (AB, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, CS, BB, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS), as well as a column for GPA. I have also included a column for the team and for the league, so you can sort by those as well. The spreadsheet can be downloaded here (*fixed*). All qualified batters are included which, as defined by ESPN, are all position players who appeared in two-thirds of their team's games, and catchers who appeared in half of their team's games.

If you have any suggestions for improvements to the spreadsheet (i.e. additional columns), please let me know. I hope to have a spreadsheet including all players who appeared in MLB games this season soon, not just qualified players.

A brief tutorial on sorting in Excel can be found here.

Zito is Neato ... But Overrated

2003-11-25T18:00:00.000-05:00

My blogging colleague Michael of Michael's Mets Ramblings commented today on a recent article by Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus. I haven't read the whole article, since I can't afford $39.95 for a subscription to BP. However, here is the excerpt from Michael's post. If anyone would like to sponsor a BP subscription for me, I would be happy to provide additional commentary on some of their great articles.

Honestly, I think the A's traded the wrong left-hander. Lilly is a decent
pitcher who is unlikely to be a star, and well-suited to the big outfield in
Oakland. He's not very highly regarded, which you can probably tell by his
being dealt straight up for Bobby Kielty. The A's got in the trade about
what Lilly is worth.

The key in trading, though, is to swap a player whose perceived value is
greater than his actual value, taking advantage of that gap to come out of a
trade with more talent than you had before. Right now, there are few players
in the game for whom the gap between perception and reality is greater than
Barry Zito. Zito is just one year removed from a Cy Young Award, but he's
been regressing ever since his best year, which was actually 2001.

Year W-L  ERA    IP    BB/9  K/9   K/BB  HR/9
2000  7-4  2.72   92.2  4.37  7.58  1.73  0.58
2001 17-8  3.49  214.1  3.36  8.61  2.56  0.76
2002 23-5  2.75  229.1  3.06  7.14  2.33  0.94
2003 14-12 3.30  231.2  3.42  5.67  1.66  0.74

Pull away the Cy Young Award, the association with a great team and two
other great starting pitchers, and the image of the flaky left-hander that
doesn't get bothered by anything, and what you have is a pitcher who is
heavily dependent on his defense and his ballpark, both of which have kept
Zito's ERA down as his core stats regress. Subjectively, Zito has thrown a
ton of pitches from ages 23-25, many of them sharp-breaking, joint-rending
curveballs. He's the worst of the big three pitchers, but the only one with
a gaudy trophy on the mantle. He's marketable, personable, and signed
through 2006 at a total of about $16.5 million.

Zito is a mid-rotation starter with an ace's reputation. Trading him in the
right deal--and the right deal would almost certainly be available--would be
the kind of bold move that would solidify the team's spot atop the AL West
for years to come. Think the Mets wouldn't have to consider a Zito-for-Jose
Reyes trade? The Yankees are falling all over themselves to deal Nick
Johnson and Alfonso Soriano this winter. Either would improve the A's;
getting both--and would you put it past George Steinbrenner to trade
both?--would make them a truly great team. Zito is a SoCal guy; both the
Angels and Dodgers have good prospects within their system and new owners
dying to be loved. The Cubs want a left-hander and appear to have no use for
Juan Cruz or Hee Seop Choi.

There are any number of possibilities, all available because Zito has a
superstar's name and a fourth-year player's price tag. What makes a move
like this sensible is that Zito isn't likely to continue being one of the
league's top pitchers, and I have to believe a performance-conscious
braintrust like the A's have sees the degradation in his performance and
would concur with that idea. All they need to do is leverage that knowledge.

With Lilly gone, the A's have probably sealed off this route, but perhaps
not. After all, they have Rich Harden, Justin Duchscherer and Mike Wood
available right now, and Joe Blanton could be ready by midseason. Patching
the hole left by Zito's absence would likely only be a problem for a short
time, and the potential benefits, when you consider Zito's market value, are
huge.

You can read Michael's response here.

I couldn't agree with Mr. Sheehan more. Hits and earned runs are largely defense-dependent statistics. The pitcher has a large measure of control over the number of walks, strikeouts, and homeruns he allows to the opposing team. All else is subject to the fancy of the fates and/or his defense. Zito's walk rate has been consistent over the past three seasons, and his rate is quite good. However, his K/9 and K/BB have dropped in each of the past two seasons, not a very good indicator of future success. He did a much better job this season keeping the ball in the yard (21% better to be exact), which is certainly a good sign. However, the strikeouts are a disturbing trend.

Strikeout rate is probably the single-most important indicator of future success. It certainly isn't ERA or hits allowed, which can fluctuate from year-to-year depending on park factors, defense, luck, rotation of the earth, etc.

I'm not overly concerned about which year was better, 2001 or 2002. Pedro Martinez should have won the Cy Young in 2002 anyway. Joe makes an excellent point about Zito's tradeability, though. I have soured on Zito, particularly because of his low strikeout rates. Pitchers who do not strike out a good number of hitters have a difficult time maintaining consistency in the big leagues. How many great pitchers are in the league now who don't rely greatly on their ability to retire batters without putting the ball into play? Imagine if you will, the Yankees without their ability to ring up strike three on opposing hitters. The Yanks had four pitchers in the top eight in the AL in K/BB (David Wells,#2, Mike Mussina,#3, Andy Pettitte, #7, and Roger Clemens, #8). With the Yankees infield, they would have led the league in runs against if they had a pitching staff made up of Barry Zitos.

Barry Zito is, in my estimation (and Joe's), at his peak value. He's coming off a pretty good season after a Cy Young winning one (even if it wasn't Cy Young-worthy), and there are a lot of teams that would give their left nut for that kind of "alleged" performance. While I doubt the Mets would even entertain the offer for Jose Reyes (at least I hope they wouldn't), the Yankees would almost certainly part with Nick Johnson. Barry Zito is what pitchers are supposed to turn into when they can no longer pitch like they used to, not when they are only 25.

The Summer is Not Over Yet ... The Pedro Salsa Heatwave is Here!

2003-11-24T15:35:00.000-05:00

I'm not sure how long it's been around, but I just found out about a great new way to spice up your dominican dishes at home. It's Pedro Martinez' Southwest Corn & Bean Salsa. No joke. This is the most exciting thing since Kimo Bean introduced the now-defunct Benny Bean coffee, a partnership forged with former Met Benny Agbayani. Little did I know that PLB Sports offers a myriad of athlete-related food stuffs.

These are just a few of the many products available. Proceeds benefit a charity of choice for each athlete.

* * * * * * * * * *

Bob Hohler of the Boston Globe wrote an excellent article today about statistics and their use in baseball analysis, specifically as it pertains to the Red Sox organizational philosophies and what traits they are looking for in their new field manager.

The manager of the future -- maybe even the next manager on Yawkey Way -- may be expected to know all that about Martinez and more. Much more. About Martinez and every other player in the game.

In an era when computers have replaced people across the professional spectrum -- from typesetters to switchboard operators to assembly-line workers -- advanced technology is changing the way baseball is managed and played at a pace that makes Martinez's signature heater look like a lollipop pitch. And field tacticians who fail to embrace the movement may risk joining Grady Little among the ranks of the unemployed.

Let The Lunacy Begin

2003-11-21T14:18:00.000-05:00

The 2003 MLB free agent season is officially underway (and has been for a few weeks now), and with it comes the inevitable barrage of bad signings. While these signings are usually perpetrated by my Mets, I'm happy to say that the first couple belong to other unfortunate teams. That's not to say the Mets won't make their own share, as their laundry list of rumored has-beens and never-will-bes includes the likes of Pokey Reese, Todd Walker, Luis Castillo, etc.

The first bad signing, and by "bad" I really mean "inexcusable" or "criminal", was the Astros inking Brad Ausmus to a two-year deal worth $4 million.

I'm having a difficult time deciding which is more insipid: the fact that Ausmus made $5.5 million this year or, after his sub-replacement-level performance these past few seasons, that someone, namely the team that suffered through those seasons, would decide that $2 million per year is a good investment in him.

I have heard that he is a good "character" guy which, while I can't quantify, I would imagine is much like saying a girl has a great personality in lieu of just calling her "ugly".

In an era where batting statistics are through the roof, we still don't expect much offensive output from the catching position. Never has this been more true than in Houston. Among major league catchers with 250 or more at-bats last season (of which there were 30), Ausmus ranked dead last in SLG and OPS (OBP % plus SLG %) and next-to-last in AVG (Brandon Inge).

Having lousy production at catcher is not a crime. However, having arguably the worst offensive catcher in the league while paying him like the seventh-best catcher in the league is ludicrous.

He did manage to draw 46 walks in 450 at-bats, which isn't half-bad. His .229 AVG and *gag* .291 SLG would give me nightmares if I were a fan in Houston. Well, the nightmares are going to last for another two years it would seem.

* * * * * * * * * *

The other bad move was Raul Ibanez signing a three-year deal with the Mariners worth $13 million. Not bad for Raul, mind you. Aaron of Aaron's Baseball Blog has already covered this topic, so I will just make a few points.

Ibanez was a 36th round pick by the M's in 1992 and played small parts of five seasons before signing with the Royals as a free agent in 2001. After playing part-time in 2001, he got 497 at-bats in 2002 and put together a fine season: 24 homeruns, 103 RBI, .883 OPS, .294 AVG.

A big concern is that he's going from an extreme hitter's park (Kauffman Stadium) to an extreme pitcher's park (Safeco Field), which typically doesn't favor batters who rely on slugging percentage to pad their OPS (as opposed to on-base percentage, which translates much better from park-to-park).

He's gotten on base consistently around 35% of the time over the past three seasons, and his slugging has fluctuated from .495 (2001) to .537 (2002) to .454 (2003). He's hit surprisingly well at Safeco over the past three seasons, posting a 1.316 OPS in 42 at-bats. It's a small sample size, so it's difficult to draw any meaningful information from it.

One can reasonably expect his power numbers to drop off in his new surroundings, though his on-base percentage shouldn't drift too far one way or the other. Ibanez is a fairly productive player, but is roughly league-average (or slightly better) for an outfielder/first-baseman type. He ranked 22nd in the AL among outfielders in Win Shares with 15, just ahead of Frank Catalanotto and just behind Eric Byrnes, two nice players who aren't going to see $4 million per-year anytime soon.

Plus, as Aaron points out, since the Mariner's signed Ibanez before the Royals had a chance to offer him arbitration, they automatically forfeit their first-round pick in next year's draft. Not a great way to kick off the Bill Bavasi regime.

Some People Still Don't Get It

2003-11-18T23:11:00.000-05:00

Jayson Stark is totally clueless. In his latest nonsensical diatribe, Jayson pleads his case to the masses regarding what true "value" is. Not unexpectedly, he carts out the old standbys when suggesting how everyone should quantify this "value":

1) How have all the other voters defined it over the last 70 years? and
2) Where would this player's team have finished without him?

Jayson is not an old-timer, but he subscribes to oh-so-many of the old-timer baseball adages. I'm not saying he's wrong in his thinking because his opinion differs from my own. He's wrong for any number of other reasons, so why single one out? Here's an analogy that I just conjured up:

Let us suppose there are two men: one wealthy, one not so. The wealthy man is worth $1,000,000, while the poor man is worth a mere $1,000. Walking along one day, the wealthy man finds $90 on the sidewalk, and picks it up. Across town, the poor man finds $100 on the sidewalk, and picks it up. By Jayson's logic, the $90 is more valuable to the wealthy man than the $100 is to the poor man because, after all, he would still be poor without that extra $100. As we all know, the $100 is, at its simplest, more valuable by $10 than the $90. One might even argue that, on a different level, it's significantly more valuable, with the importance that it holds in the hands of the poor man. Why, the wealthy man has $90 many times over, while the $100 truly makes a world of difference to the poor man.

Analogy Key
Wealthy Man - First Place Minnesota Twins
Poor Man - Last Place Texas Rangers
$90 - would-be MVP candidate Shannon Stewart (though it's probably more like $50)
$100 - Alex Rodriguez

Hopefully it's starting to sink in. I generally enjoy Jayson's writing, but his current agenda leaves me scratching my head. He even rips his ESPN.com co-columnist Peter Gammons (amongst others) for not knowing "...what "valuable" means in this goofy world we live in." He goes on to use loaded arguments, such as this gem:

It tells us that hundreds of voters, over more than seven decades, almost always thought "valuable," as it applied to this award, meant a player's team at least won more games than it lost. Ideally, it contended for or finished first.

If we're wrong about that, then how come the voters for this award defined it that way for just about everyone else in the American League?

Of the 26 players besides A-Rod who got a vote, only two -- Anaheim's Garret Anderson and (hold your chuckles, please) Tampa Bay's Aubrey Huff -- played for teams with losing records.

Of course he doesn't mention that the main reason teams lose more games than they win is because they don't have very good players. This fact eludes Stark (or at least it eludes his argument), who is still campaigning door-to-door for Shannon Stewart. That he would take a cheap shot at Aubrey Huff like this ("...hold your chuckles...") is not only foolish, but misplaced. He fails to mention that Huff bested his choice, Stewart, in almost every conceivable category. He had a 3 point edge in OBP, a 96 point edge in SLG, a 99 point edge in OPS, a 4 point edge in AVG, 21 more homeruns, 34 more RBI, and an extra run. His RARP was a whopping 27 runs higher and he had 3 more Win Shares.

He concludes his sermon with this:

He won because nobody had any idea who to vote for. So they handed the best player in the league a consolation prize, a career-achievement award, a picturesque-numbers trophy, a We're Sorry You Never Won Before award. It was a magnanimous gesture and a fine little tip of the cap to a great, great player. Except that's not what the MVP award is. It's supposed to be about this year, about which team won and which teams didn't and about which player had the most to do with that.

Much as the two writers who left Hideki Matsui off of their ROY ballots because they felt the need to redefine the criteria for the award, Stark seems to want to re-christen this award the MVPWT, or Most Valuable Player on a Winning Team, which it is clearly not intended to be. As Rob Neyer points out in his rebuttal:

The Rangers finished in fourth place, which happens to be last place in the American League West. If they'd played in the American League Central, they'd probably have finished third, ahead of two or three other teams. Would that change Jayson's opinion of Alex Rodriguez's "value?" And if it would, then I submit that this house of cards, atop which Jayson's definition of "value" rests, has just collapsed under its own illogical weight.

That's better than I could have said it.

Bonds Still The Man

2003-11-18T14:04:00.000-05:00

Just announced, Barry Bonds is once again the National league MVP. Not only was he the best player in the league, but I think he had the following going for him:

1) Many writers who had soured on Bonds in the past because of his stoic demeanor with the media may have softened their opinions of him, personally, with the recent passing of his father, Bobby Bonds.
2) He played for a first place (playoff) team, who some people still think means a damned thing.

Regardless, he was the 2003 Sabey Award winner, and now has the less-coveted NL MVP award to go with it. Better make room on the mantel.

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 5: NL MVP

2003-11-17T13:00:00.000-05:00

And so we come to the final day of the 2003 Sabey Awards. To recap:

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 3: NL Cy Young
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 4: AL MVP

Player           Age  AVG  OBP  SLG  BB    K   XBH  HR  AB    R   RBI  Win Shares  EqA  RARP
Barry Bonds       39  341  529  749  148   58   68  45  390  111   90  39.21 (2)   420  106.5
Todd Helton       30  358  458  630  111   72   87  33  583  135  117  33.52 (4)   345   73.3
Javy Lopez        33  328  378  687   33   90   75  43  457   89  109  29.73 (6)   337   64.4
Mike Lowell       29  276  350  530   56   78   60  32  492   76  105  23.04 (21)  299   41.7
Albert Pujols     23  359  439  667   79   65   95  43  591  137  124  41.13 (1)   362   90.8
Gary Sheffield    34  330  419  604   86   55   78  39  576  126  132  34.51 (3)   341   73.9
Sammy Sosa        35  279  358  553   62  143   62  40  517   99  103  21.77 (30)  303   38.3
Jim Thome         33  266  385  573  111  182   80  47  578  111  131  30.00 (5)   321   58.3
Preston Wilson    29  282  343  537   54  139   80  36  600   94  141  19.92 (39)  279   30.4

Okay, so I left Eric Gagne off the list. This was more out of laziness than any lack of merit on Gagne's part. He did put up more Win Shares (24.98) than three of the hitters here, but lets not kid ourselves, he wasn't going to win this award.

Here's a short list of others who won't be winning this award:

Javy Lopez - He broke the single-season record for most homers by a catcher, just edging out my drinking buddy Todd Hundley. This was an uncharacteristically productive season for Javier, who is usually just this side of worthless at the plate. His career year also came at a most opportune time, considering this was his walk year.

Mike Lowell - He had a very nice season, but wasn't even the best third baseman in the league (Scott Rolen), and might not have been the best player on his own team (Pudge Rodriguez).

Sammy Sosa - Come on. The guy was 30th in Win Shares, and only put up a .358 OBP. Great player, but didn't have a great season. Plus he missed some time RE: Corked Bat.

Jim Thome - Great pickup by the Phillies. The AVG was a twenty point drop from his career mark, but you can't complain about a .958 OPS in his first year in the league.

Preston Wilson - Nuff said.

While this is really a two horse race, I need to at least mention Todd Helton and player/agent Gary Sheffield. These guys actually put up very similar seasons in terms of Win Shares, EqA, and RARP. Sheff would probably get the nod because he doesn't play half of his games in a Batting Cage and he plays a (slightly) more demanding defensive position.

Poor Albert Pujols. The man is only (allegedly) 23 years old, and has already put up three MVP-caliber seasons. And, thanks to MLB's indentured servant rules, he only made $900k this year, and will continue to make chicken feed for the next three seasons. Unless he gets indicted on cocaine charges in the Dominican Republic or we find out he's actually 42, he stands to see a hefty raise come 2007. If he played in the American League, he'd run away with the award this year. Unfortunately for him, God happens to play in the National League.

Barry Bonds put up his worst year since 2000, when he posted a Neifi Perez-esque 1.128 OPS. He still managed to put up an otherworldly 1.278. Barry Bonds' production continues to boggle the mind. He led the league in OBP, SLG, OPS (duh), walks, intentional walks, BB/PA, BB/K, groundball-to-flyball ratio (not sure how impressive this is, but he led the league in it nonetheless), RC/27 (runs created per 27 outs), isolated power, secondary average (I'm just going through ESPN.com's sortable statistics at this point), etc. The only knock against him this year is that he played only 130 games. This explains why Pujols held a slight edge in Win Shares, but it won't be enough to deny Bonds his third straight (sixth overall) MVP award.

2003 Sabey Choice: Barry Bonds
Predicted MLB Winner: Barry Bonds

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 4: AL MVP

2003-11-14T23:58:00.000-05:00

If you missed them, check out the last two days of Sabey Award coverage:

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 3: NL Cy Young

I've been looking at each of the candidates and evaluating them statistically. I give the Sabey to the player I feel is most deserving, and also make a prediction as to who will actually be chosen for the award.

Player              Age AVG  OBP  SLG  BB    K   XBH  HR  AB    R   RBI  Win Shares  EqA  RARP
Garret Anderson     31  315  345  541   31   83   82  29  638   80  116  25.26 (11)  298  38.0
Bret Boone          34  294  366  535   68  125   75  35  622  111  117  29.71 (3)   313  66.0
Carlos Delgado      31  302  426  593  109  137   71  42  570  117  145  32.21 (2)   338  70.1
Nomar Garciaparra   30  301  345  524   39   61   78  28  658  120  105  25.19 (12)  296  55.1
David Ortiz         27  288  369  592   58   83   72  31  448   79  101  15.09 (68)  316  40.2
Jorge Posada        32  281  405  518   93  110   54  30  481   83  101  27.75 (5)   318  58.4
Alex Rodriguez      28  298  396  600   87  126   83  47  607  124  118  32.51 (1)   326  79.1
Manny Ramirez       31  325  427  587   97   94   74  37  569  117  104  27.59 (7)   341  70.7
Shannon Stewart     29  307  364  459   52   66   59  13  573   90   73  18.43 (40)  283  23.1
Frank Thomas        35  267  390  562  100  115   77  42  546   87  105  22.82 (19)  318  51.8
* explanations: win shares, eqa, and rarp

Before I digress into statistical meanderings, I feel obligated to state my position on the whole "What MVP Means" dance. Some people would lead you to believe that the "value" implied by "Most Valuable Player" is not necessarily of the concrete, discernable type. Rather, they might suggest that there is a metaphysical characteristic of certain players that elevate their contribution to a team above that which can be computed, calculated, and otherwise comprehended with the tools we have readily at our disposal. These same people might propose the following absurdities:

1) How can a player on a last-place team be the MVP? They would have finished last without him.
2) He struggled late in the season, when the games "really" matter.
3) He's smelly.
4) He doesn't play for the Yankees.
5) He makes too much money.

Those last three were filler, but you get the point. The first two arguments are not only misguided, but are downright ignorant. Dan Werr writes impressively about this in his AL MVP article at baseballprimer.com. The purpose of statistical analysis as it pertains to baseball players is to take the player out of the context in which he performed, and attempt to universalize his performance for comparison purposes. Is it Alex Rodriguez' fault that his team is lousy and he didn't play "meaningful" games in September? Are we to believe that Jorge Posada's performance in late-season games against also-rans like the Orioles and Devil Rays was somehow more "valuable" than A-Rod's in games against much tougher teams like the A's and Mariners? As you and I both know, the value of a win in September is roughly equivalent to the value of a win in April (or March, as in this season). So rather than debate the merits (or lack thereof) of these vagaries, I will instead make an attempt at determining, simply, which player is the best. The "Best Player" and the "Most Valuable Player", in my estimation, are rephrasings of the same conclusion.

Jayson Stark's non-sensical ramblings notwithstanding, Shannon Stewart is not a legitimate candidate for MVP. For that matter, David Ortiz and Garret Anderson aren't either. Anderson actually had more Win Shares this season than Nomah, who also won't be bringing home the hardware. Nomar and Ortiz were probably 3-4 on their own team this season, behind Manny, Trot Nixon, and probably even Bill Mueller.

I've always been a big fan of Frank Thomas the ballplayer. Even though Frank Thomas the human being has had less-than-stellar moments (like when he said his $10 mill annual salary was insulting), I've always been impressed by his talents. Before OBP and SLG were the talk of the town, The Big Hurt was putting up 1000 OPS seasons consistently. The guy was a beast for most of the 90's, and returned (mostly) to form this season after a couple of lackluster campaigns. His average isn't what it used to be, but he still walks a ton and can hit the ball a long way. Not the MVP though.

With Mike Piazza's recent string of mediocre numbers and painful groin injuries, Jorge Posada has become the marquee offensive backstop in all of baseball. Javy Lopez had a ridiculous season offensively, but I'd still take Jorgie for the long haul (though he's 32 already). He's got pop, he's a switch-hitter, and you've just gotta love a catcher who gets on base at a .400 clip. Though he plays a demanding defensive position, he's no great shakes in the field. He still passes balls like Dan Marino and, while I have heard that his throwing has improved, I certainly can't tell from his stats (.282, .290, .280 CS% the past three seasons).

Bret Boone, despite having a very large head, is quite a player. He's a gold glover at 2B, which makes his offensive production that much more impressive. Any time you can get significant production AND great defense from one of the big three (C, SS, 2B), you've got a great player on your hands. I don't know whether it's the THG or the Starbucks or if something just clicked, but ever since coming to Seattle, the man has been a hitting machine. He could take a few more walks, but other than that, he's the best second-baseman in the game. Not the MVP.

It should come as no surprise that C-Del, M-Ram, and A-Rod were in the top five in the AL in OPS, RARP (Runs Above Replacement batter at Position), runs scored, and SLG. This is the cream of the crop, folks. It should also come as no surprise that these three players rank at or near the top in annual salary (Rodriguez and Ramirez are 1 and 2, with Delgado not far behind). These are the kind of offensive forces that you build a franchise around (albeit with more reasonable price tags). Rodriguez is the youngest and the only of the three on the better side of 30. Ramirez had the highest average of the three, and had an OBP just a shade higher than Delgado. Rodriguez was tops in the league in SLG. A-Rod also swiped 17 bases in 20 attempts for an 85% success rate. What really separates these three behemoths from each other is their performance relative to others who play their position. LF and 1B are the two least demanding defensive positions (according to Bill James' defensive spectrum, not counting DH), while shortstop is the single-most demanding position (not counting catcher, which is considered a special case). The defensive spectrum looks like this:

[ DH - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C ]

Offense is more highly concentrated on the left end of the spectrum, while defense is more highly concentrated on the right end. It's much harder to find a productive offensive player at 2B or SS than it is at 1B or DH. It is typical for a ballplayer to move leftward along the spectrum, though it is rare for one to move rightward. With any luck, Mr. Piazza will be making a great leftward shift in the coming season, though he may end up shifting even further for an AL team. The defensive spectrum attempts to illustrate how similar offensive production is much more valuable from a shortstop than it is from a left-fielder or a first-baseman. This difference is reflected in a player's RARP. While Delgado and Rodriguez put up similar offensive numbers this season (Delgado held the edge in most, including OPS), A-Rod's performance is more impressive because his was done while playing a position that is less inclined to do so.

2003 Sabey Choice: Alex Rodriguez
Predicted MLB Winner: Alex Rodriguez

2003-11-11T17:19:00.000-05:00

With a short break in the MLB Awards announcements, here is a snippet from John Sickels' column at ESPN.com about the Arizona Fall League, specifically Met 3B-to-be David Wright:

A well-kept secret, Wright had a solid season in the Florida State League, and has followed that up by hitting .341 with a .433 OBP and a .488 SLG in Arizona. Of particular note are 13 walks and just eight strikeouts in 82 at-bats. He has power and a good measure of refinement at the plate. Wright is also a very good defensive third baseman, more reliable than most players his age, and featuring a strong arm and decent range. I think he is an excellent prospect, and he could see Shea Stadium sometime late in 2004.

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 3: NL Cy Young

2003-11-11T09:56:00.000-05:00

If you missed them, check out the last two days of Sabey Award coverage:

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year
The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young

I've been looking at each of the candidates and evaluating them statistically. I give the Sabey to the player I feel is most deserving, and also make a prediction as to who will actually be chosen for the award.

Today I will look at the National League Cy Young award.

Player               Age IP     K    BB  HR  ERA   WHIP   K/9   K/BB  HR/9
Eric Gagne           27   82.1  137   20   2  1.20  0.69  14.98  6.85  0.22
Kevin Millwood       28  222.0  169   68  19  4.01  1.25   6.85  2.49  0.77
Russ Ortiz           29  212.1  149  102  17  3.81  1.31   6.32  1.46  0.72
Mark Prior           23  211.1  245   50  15  2.43  1.10  10.43  4.90  0.64
Jason Schmidt        30  207.2  208   46  14  2.34  0.95   9.01  4.52  0.61
John Smoltz          36   64.1   73   8   2  1.12  0.87  10.21  9.13  0.28
Billy Wagner         32   86.0  105   23   8  1.78  0.87  10.99  4.57  0.84
Woody Williams       37  220.2  153   55  20  3.87  1.25   6.24  2.78  0.82
Randy Wolf           27  200.0  177   78  27  4.23  1.27   7.97  2.27  1.22
Kerry Wood           26  211.0  266  100  24  3.20  1.19  11.35  2.66  1.02

Unlike the American League race, where every player was a viable candidate for the award, there are a few stinkers here. Despite racking up 21 wins, Russ Ortiz wasn't very impressive this season (or in previous seasons, really). He has benefited much from playing for great teams (Braves, Giants), many of which played in PacBell, a great pitcher's park. His ERA is better than average for the league, but the guy walked 102 batters in 212 innings. What up with that? You might be saying, "Yea, well Kerry Wood walked 100 batters in 211 innings." True, but Mr. Wood also led the league in strikeouts, while Russ Ortiz had a lower strikeout rate than all-but-one of the candidates here. Which brings us to...

Woody Williams. Woody put up very good numbers in the first half, posting an ERA just a shade over 3.00 (3.01 to be precise). My man fell off the wagon (or maybe it was back on the wagon, given his performance in recent years) in Mid-July, though. He put up a bloated 5.23 ERA post-All-Star, whilst giving up 11 homers in only 86 innings.

The next two to leave are teammates. One pitched in the All-Star Game, the other just became a free agent and will likely command more money over more years than a middle-of-the-road starting pitcher should be hauling in. If you guessed Randy Wolf and Kevin Millwood, give yourself a gold star. Perhaps someone can look this up for me, but I would venture a guess that these are the two worst teammates to ever be candidates for this award in the same season. They both had ERA's over 4.00, they both had K/BB in the lower 2's, and while Wolf's K/9 is good, he gave up a slew of long balls this year: almost 1.25 jacks-per-nine. I pity the poor team who signs Millwood to a five-year, $60 million deal (please don't be the Mets, please don't be the Mets).

Billy Wagner (Wags) is a great pitcher with great stuff. He struck out more batters per nine innings than either John Smoltz or Mark Prior. His K/BB is good but not great for a closer. He's a bit prone to the tater, having given up 8 in 86 innings. Nevertheless, he was a huge pickup recently for the Phils, and should help put them over the top in the NL East this coming season. However, he happened to pitch during the same season as two of the best closers of all time (yes, I know it's early to say it, but it's hard to argue). Alas, Wagner won't be winning the Cy Young this year (or any other year, really).

Kerry Wood had another monster strikeout season, leading the bigs in both K's, K/9, and, unfortunately, almost leading the majors in walks (that particular honor belongs to Victor Zambrano). Wood could very well win a Cy Young award one day, that day just isn't today (or any day this week). He's not nearly the best pitcher on his own team, let alone in the whole league.

Now let's get down to it. We have four pitchers left: two starters, two relievers. John Smoltz had a brilliant year for the Braves, and actually posted a better ERA and K/BB than Eric Gagne. However, it's hard to overlook the man who broke the modern-day K/9 record (previously held by one Armando Benitez, when he K'd 14.77 batters per nine innings in 1999, splitting time between setup and, when Johnny Franco went on the DL, closer). Gagne was flat-out sick this year, notching an ERA of 1.20, a WHIP of 0.69, and a HR/9 of 0.22. That's just over 1/5 of one homerun every nine innings. Did I mention he set the record for most K's per nine innings? The man struck out nigh 15 batters for every 27 outs he recorded. He blew zero saves this season (one if you count the All-Star Game), though I don't find saves all that indicative of a pitcher's performance. This was quite possibly the best season for a relief pitcher ever, putting Dennis Eckersley's '92 Cy Young season to shame in virtually every category.

Deciding on the best starting pitcher between Mark Prior and Jason Schmidt is really a toss-up. Jason Schmidt had a better WHIP, but that was likely due to the Giants' infield defense being significantly better than the Cubs'. Their walks were about the same, homers were about the same, IP were about the same, ERA were about the same. See where I'm going with this? The main thing that really separates these two pitchers' performances is Prior's strikeout rate, which is a good bit better than Schmidt's. That's not to take anything away from Schmidt, who struck out more than a batter-per-inning, a great mark for a starting pitcher. But Prior struck out 37 more guys and, subsequently, had a better K/9 and K/BB ratio.

If Mark Prior were in the American League this season, he would have been my choice for AL Cy Young. It's unfortunate for him that he was not, because I think Eric Gagne was a better pitcher this year. Prior had a phenomenal year, and undoubtedly (barring injury) has one, probably multiple Cy Young awards in his future. He's only 23, and is already one of the best pitchers in the game. If you were to ask me who I would rather have on my team, the choice wouldn't even be close. Prior would be my #1 pick among all pitchers in the majors, but that's a different story. Gagne was obscenely good this year and, although he was probably babied a bit (as are most closers not named Mariano Rivera), he is the 2003 Saby Award winner for National League Cy Young.

2003 Saby Choice: Eric Gagne
Predicted MLB Winner: Eric Gagne

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 2: AL Cy Young

2003-11-10T14:40:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, in The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1, I took a look at the American League and National League Rookie of the Year races.

Today I will break down the American League Cy Young candidates.

All of these pitchers had very good or great seasons, but only one can win the award (duh).

Player              Age IP     K   BB  HR  ERA   WHIP  K/9   K/BB  HR/9
Bartolo Colon       30  242.0  173  67  30  3.87  1.20  6.43  2.58  1.12
Keith Foulke        31   86.2   88  20  10  2.08  0.89  9.14  4.40  1.04
Roy Halladay        26  266.0  204  32  26  3.25  1.07  6.90  6.38  0.88
Tim Hudson          28  240.0  162  61  15  2.70  1.08  6.08  2.66  0.56
Esteban Loaiza      31  226.1  207  56  17  2.90  1.11  8.23  3.70  0.68
Pedro Martinez      32  186.2  206  47   7  2.22  1.04  9.93  4.38  0.34
Jamie Moyer         40  215.0  129  66  19  3.27  1.23  5.40  1.96  0.80
Mark Mulder         26  186.2  128  40  15  3.13  1.18  6.17  3.20  0.72
Mike Mussina        34  214.2  195  40  21  3.40  1.08  8.18  4.88  0.88
Andy Pettitte       31  208.1  180  50  21  4.02  1.33  7.78  3.60  0.91

There's only one relief pitcher in this group, and he isn't going to win. Keith Foulke had a great year as a closer for the Oakland A's, racking up 43 saves (overrated), while posting the lowest ERA and WHIP and the highest K/9 among the candidates. Unlike typical modern-day closers, Foulke actually pitched more than one inning on 21 occasions this season (Eric Gagne did so only 11 times). Unlike Gagne's candidacy in the NL, where the argument could be made that there aren't any ridiculous starting pitchers, the same can't be said of Foulke.

Bartolo Colon, while fat, was not the best pitcher in the American League. His rotundness notwithstanding, he posted the highest HR/9, third-highest WHIP, and second-lowest K/BB. He pitched the second-most innings, but gave up too many homeruns and did not strike out enough batters.

Forty-year-old Jamie Moyer is the oldest by six years, but that's not why he won't win the award. His HR/9 was very good, but his WHIP was only lower than Andy Pettitte's, and he simply doesn't ring up enough K's. He's a great pitcher, and probably will be for a few more years (I can't believe I just said that), but his K/9 and K/BB leave much to be desired. He was likely helped out considerably by the Mariners' defense and their four gold gloves. If he put that many balls into play with the Mets' defense behind him, he wouldn't have been nearly as "lucky".

Andy Pettitte had been a very good pitcher for the Yankees over the years, but he struggled away from the Stadium, posting an ERA a half-run higher on the road this season. He also gave up many more homeruns (15 to 6). This was just a flukey season for him, though. Right? Hardly. Over the previous three seasons (2000-2002), Pettitte's ERA was more than three-quarters of a run worse on the road (4.20 to 3.46), and his walks were way up (75 to 48) in a similar number of innings (268 to 275.2). Any ballclub interested in signing Pettitte to a megabucks contract may want to keep these in mind, especially if he'll be pitching his home games at Ten-Run Field in Houston. He wasn't even the best pitcher on his team, let alone the best in the league.

Along those lines, I'm also going to eliminate Mark Mulder. He had a great year for the A's, but wasn't quite as good as teammate Tim Hudson. They posted similar numbers, with Mulder posting better strikeout rates and Hudson giving up fewer homeruns. At the end of the day, I give the nod to Hudson because he posted comparable numbers over many more innings (53.1 more to be exact).

While I'm pickin' off A's, I'll dismiss Hudson too. Though slightly better than Mulder, his K/9 was not great and his K/BB was fairly poor. He had the second-best HR/9 here, but that just wasn't enough.

The Moose has been let loose. Mike Mussina put up another great season in pinstripes, and was overshadowed again (think Roger Clemens in 2001) by a teammate with lesser stats but more wins. I'm also going to cut Esteban Loaiza. I don't really have great reasons for cutting either of these guys, except that they weren't quite as good as Pedro and Halladay. They both put up tremendous numbers, and either could have won this award if the competition weren't so stiff.

Halladay or Pedro. Pedro or Halladay. This is a tough one, guys. Other than innings pitched and KK/B, Pedro dominated this race in almost every important category. His K/9 was awesome for a starting pitcher, his ERA and WHIP were microscopic (Halladay's WHIP was almost as low), and his HR/9 was otherworldly. The freakin' guy gave up seven homeruns in almost 190 innings! Despite Halladay throwing 80 more innings and posting the best K/BB of any starting pitcher in the bigs, I have to give this one to Pedro. Halladay will probably win the real award, but Pedro gets the Sabey.

2003 Saby Choice: Pedro Martinez
Predicted MLB Winner: Roy Halladay

The 2003 Sabey Awards Part 1: Rookie of the Year

2003-11-09T16:34:00.000-05:00

Ladies and Gentlemen, I am proud to bring you the first annual Sabey Awards, where I pick my winners of MLBs fall awards. The candidates are those suggested by MLB.com's Awards page. I guess these are considered the official candidates, though quite a few of them are borderline at best. Quite frankly, I had to click on the "R. Johnson, TOR" link just to find out that the "R" stood for "Reed". My ignorance to the lesser-knowns notwithstanding, I will attempt to evaluate each player objectively via rudimentary statistical analysis. So, without further ado...

American League

When I think of the AL ROY candidates, the usual names come to mind: Hideki Matsui, Angel Berroa, Jody Gerut. MLB.com evidently needed ten candiates for each award, so we also get Joe Somebodys like Craig Monroe and the aforementioned Reed Johnson. Nevertheless, each player will be given equal consideration, as I attempt to not let my Big-Cityness cloud my objectivity. I am going to compare the hitters to each other and the pitchers to each other, and then decide on a winner based on the results of those comparisons.

The Hitters

Below are the pertinent stats for each hitter...

Player          Age AVG OBP SLG BB  K XBH HR AB R RBI SB/CS
Rocco Baldelli 22 289 326 416 30 128 51 11 637 89   78 27/10
Angel Berroa     25 287 338 451 29 100 54 17 567 92   73 21/5
Jody Gerut       26 279 336 494 35 70 57 22 480 66   75 4/5
Reed Johnson     26 294 353 427 20 67 33 10 412 79   52 5/3
Hideki Matsui    29 287 353 435 63 86 59 16 623 82 106 2/2
Craig Monroe     26 240 287 449 27 89 42 23 425 51   70 4/2
Mark Teixeira    23 259 331 480 44 120 50 26 529 66   84 1/2

Okay, let's start weeding them out. Craig Monroe, despite his 23 HR and 70 RBI, is just this side of useless. That .287 OBP is downright Rey Ordonez-esque (that is, if you disregard his uncharacteristic 2003 campaign where he hit .316 in 117 AB, albeit with only two walks). His slugging is middle-of-the-pack here, but he's old for a non-Japanese rookie at 26, and shouldn't really be in consideration for this award.

Reed Johnson isn't going to win this award either. His .353 OBP is nice, but is largely contributed to by his .294 AVG. 20 BB in 412 AB is almost as bad as the Baldelli kid.

Speaking of Baldelli, can a brother get a base-on-balls every once in awhile? 30 BB in 637 AB is actually worse than Choppin' Brocolli himself. He did manage to swipe 27 bases, but at the cost of 10 caught-stealing (73%, a bit higher than the break-even point). He's essentially Alphonso Soriano without the power numbers which, as we know, isn't much at all.

To narrow it down to a nice even (odd) three, I'm going to show Mark Teixeira (or as my buddy Steve calls him, Tex-ee-era) the door. His 26 bombs are the most among the candidates, and he has the second-highest slugging among this group, but his .259 AVG and .331 OBP aren't going to cut it with the Beane-counters here.

Jody Gerut outslugged everyone here, besting $7-million-per-year Hideki Matsui by almost 60 points. However, he only reached base 33% of the time.

That leaves us with The Big Two. Hideki Matsui, the heavy favorite to win this award at the onset of the 2003 campaign, and Angel Berroa, who most people hadn't even heard of (myself included) when 2003 kicked off. Berroa bested Matsui in slugging by 15 points, which is not much more than negligible. Berroa stole 21 bases in 26 attemps, which is a terrific 80% success rate. I am not a big fan of the stolen base, but if you can swipe them at an 80% clip, be my guest. Their homeruns were very similar: 17 to 16 in favor of Berroa. Matsui held a big lead in RBI, but that's largely (read: entirely) a product of the Yankees sluggardly sluggers clogging up the bases in front of him. When you have guys like Jason Giambi (.412 OBP) and Jorge Posada (.405 OBP) hitting in front of you, it's not that hard to rack up the ribbies. Matsui gets the edge in OBP by 17 points. While this is similar to Berroa's edge in SLG, OBP is considered to be much more valuable than SLG. The ability to get on base is, quite simply, the ability to avoid making outs. As we know, there is no commodity as precious to a team as outs are.

The Pitchers

I'm not really sure why I'm even looking at these. None of them ever get any press for this award, and it's already almost 3am. But I will forge ahead.

Player             Age IP   K BB HR ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB HR/9
Lance Carter        28 79.0 47 19 12 4.33 1.15 5.35 2.47 1.37
Mike MacDougal      26 64.0 57 32 4 4.08 1.50 8.02 1.78 0.56
Francisco Rodriguez 21 86.0 95 35 12 3.04 0.99 9.94 2.71 1.26

In the race to decide who the best AL pitcher to not win the ROY this year, there are really only two horses here. Lance Carter is basically a bum, and has no business on this list. For that matter, let's make it a one-horse race really quickly. Mike MacDougal had a nice season, with a very good K/9 and a superb HR/9. However, K-Rod was better in almost every category, save HR/9. His WHIP was razor-thin, his K/9 was terrific, and his K/BB was very good as well. Plus, he's only 21, so despite the rest of the Angels team falling off the face of the earth this season, Francisco Rodriguez was far-and-away the best rookie pitcher in the American League.

The Final Answer

This was a harder decision than I thought it would be. For most of this season, I have felt that Hideki Matsui's candidacy was based largely on his overvalued RBI total. Compound this with the fact that I am a Yankee-hater, and I could have very (very, very) easily picked Berroa here. However, I think the correct choice should be Matsui. He demolishes Berroa in BB/K and BB/AB and, despite his questionable eligibility, he is my choice for 2003 American League Rookie of the Year.

2003 Saby Choice: Hideki Matsui
Predicted MLB Winner: Hideki Matsui

National League

As with the American League, I will divide the candidates into Hitters and Pitchers, which will allow for more reasonable comparison. Also like the AL, there are a number of players here who are mainly filler so that MLB could run the list to ten.

The Hitters

While the American League was short on pitching in this race, the Natioinal League is a bit short on hitting. Each of these four guys had nice rookie campaigns, though.

Player          Age AVG OBP SLG BB  K XBH HR AB R RBI SB/CS
Marlon Byrd     26 303 366 418 44 94 39 7 495 86   45 11/1
Miguel Cabrera  20 268 325 468 25 84 36 12 314 39   62 0/2
Jason Phillips  27 298 373 442 39 50 36 11 403 45   58 0/1
Scott Podsednik 27 314 379 443 56 91 46 9 558 100   58 43/10

One player is clearly the class of this list, and I will get to him in a minute. There are no duds on this list (aka Craig Monroes), as all four of these candidates put up very nice seasons. Miguel Cabrera, a mid-season callup from AA, has by far the highest ceiling, in particular because of his age (he's six years younger than the next youngest player here). He had the highest SLG here, and drove in the most runs of the group, despite having the fewest number of at-bats. However, he had a lot of trouble getting on base, hitting only .268 with an OBP of .325. His walk rate isn't bad considering his age, and he is a potential superstar for the Marlins.

Marlon Byrd looked like a bust two months into the season. He was hitting a Pat Burrell-esque .193 at the end of May, with a pathetic .538 OPS. He turned it around nicely, though, finishing at .303 and .784, respectively. His plate discipline is decent (44 BB in 495 AB), and he made the most of his speed, swiping 11 bases with only one caught-stealing. He didn't hit for much power, but that's somewhat expected from your leadoff hitter.

Jason Phillips was a huge surprise for the Mets. He was called up in mid-May for good, splitting time between catcher and first-base after Mike Piazza tore his groin. He's old for a rook at 27, but he hit just shy of .300, and showed impressive plate discipline, posting the second-highest OBP here at .373. His 11 homers are good for a catcher but shabby for a 1B. All told, his BB rate will probably get better with more experience, but he needs to hit the weight room to add some pop to his bat.

My top choice among the hitters is definitely Scott Podsednik. He had the highest AVG and OBP, hitting .314 and walking just about once every ten at-bats. He was also very successful on the bases, stealing 43 bags in 53 attempts (81% success rate). He scored 100 runs on a lousy Brewer team. He's no pup (27 years old), but he was a pleasant suprise for the Beermakers.

The Pitchers

Player             Age IP    K BB HR ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB HR/9
Brad Lidge          26 85.0 97 42 6 3.60 1.20 10.27 2.31 0.64
Horacio Ramirez     23 182.1 100 72 21 4.00 1.39 4.94 1.39 1.04
Jeriome Robertson   26 160.2 99 64 23 5.10 1.52 5.55 1.55 1.29
Oscar Villarreal    21 98.0 80 46 6 2.57 1.29 7.35 1.74 0.55
Brandon Webb        24 180.2 172 68 12 2.84 1.15 8.57 2.53 0.60
Dontrelle Willis    21 160.2 142 58 13 3.30 1.28 7.95 2.45 0.73

This is the group that most people expect the Rookie of the Year to come from, with most people putting their money on the D-Train. Before getting to him, lets pare this group down by a few.

The two worst pitchers here are Jeriome "Don't Call me Jerome" Robertson and Horacio Ramirez, particularly Robertson. His ERA was over 5, WHIP was over 1.5, and he gave up a ridiculous 23 taters in only 160.2 innings. I'm not really sure why he's a candidate, other than the obvious fact that he is actually a rookie. His stats are not very good, and he does not project well at all. Ramirez is a similar case, but he strikes me as a league-average pitcher who may be able to stick around simply because he's a lefty. He doesn't strike out a lot of guys, he gives up a lot of walks, and he's prone to the gopherball. He is only 23, but he smacks of Glendon Rusch to me.

Oscar Villarreal pitched well for the D-Backs, but really doesn't compare favorably to Brad Lidge, who can straight-up bring it. This guy was overshadowed in Houston by fireballers Billy Wagner and ex-Met Octavio Dotel, but he's got a cannon of an arm, and projects very well as a dominant closer-to-be. His K/9 and HR/9 are downright silly, and he kept his BB at a manageable level. These are very important, defense-independent stats, that are usually excellent indicators of a pitcher's ability to succeed year-in and year-out. However, it would be tough to give the award to Lidge with the year that another pitcher had.

Dontrelle Willis had a phenom-like first half, posting an ERA of 2.08 while giving up only three homeruns and fanning 79 batters in 82 innings. He was the toast of the town, and the early favorite to win this award. He must have hit a wall sometime in July, though, because he really fell apart in the second half. His 4.60 ERA was more than double his first half mark, while giving up 10 longballs in 78 innings. After soaring out to a 9-1 record at the All-Star break, he notched a mediocre 5-5 down the stretch. So, while his sideways cap and funky delivery were very entertaining, he was not the best rookie pitcher in the National League.

That honor goes to the oft-overlooked Brandon Webb. He bested Willis in almost every important category: IP, K/9, K/BB, HR/9, WHIP, ERA. This matchup wasn't even really close.

So we have our best hitter in Scott Podsednik. We have our best pitcher in Brandon Webb. Who's going to win? Neither of them, but that won't stop me from picking Webb as the Should-Be NL ROY. While Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson spent much of the year on the disabled list (and Johnson spent the rest of the time pitching like Reed Johnson), Brandon Webb was pitching like a #1 starter. I remember his debut as a starter, when he stepped in for the Big Unit to embarrass the Mets to the tune of 10 strikeouts and three hits. I haven't heard him mentioned in any Cy Young discussions, but he is certainly a viable candidate for that award too.

2003 Saby Choice: Brandon Webb
Predicted MLB Winner: Dontrelle Willis

I'll be back tomorrow with my analysis of the American League Cy Young candidates.

Mets Prepare To Take Giant Step Forward

2003-11-07T10:41:00.000-05:00

I was reading the sports sections today, and among the numerous articles detailing the Mets hiring of two (soon to be three) front office super-scouts (good move) and their interest in free-agent closer Keith Foulke (bad move), I read the following in the New York Post:

In a signal of the new wave of baseball thinking, the Mets are looking to hire a statistical analyst to join their front office.

Several teams already employ a stats maven, most notably the Boston Red Sox with the legendary Bill James. The Toronto Blue Jays and, of course, the Oakland A's also utilize statistical-based analysis.

"We've gone through an extensive search process," Mets GM Jim Duquette said. "Our plan is to have a statistical analyst to come on and be a resource or a tool in our evaluating process."

This sounds like the kind of forward-thinking I would expect out of Sabermetrically-savvy teams like Oakland, Boston, and Toronto. But my New York Mets? Pinch me, I think I'm dreaming.

This same edition of the Post also reports that the Mets might be interested in acquiring Preston Wilson from Colorado. Why? Who the hell knows. Columnist Mark Hale suggests that the move "would make tremendous practical sense for the Mets, for a number of reasons". Firstly, it would allow the Mets to piss away large sums of money on a mediocre ballplayer (SEE: Mo Vaughn). Secondly, it would rid the Mets of their promising young players:

"...the Rockies would likely want several young position players (such as Victor Diaz or Ty Wigginton), and perhaps a young arm or two (think Grant Roberts or even Aaron Heilman)."

And we get to pick up the $20 mill left on his contract over the next two years? I believe it's safe to assume that Mark Hale will not be the third super-scout, nor will he be the Mets new statistical analyst. Peep these stats:

260/316/479 with 25bb/78k and 34 xbh (15hr) in 292ab

Yessir, those are Mr. Wilson's road stats from 2003. The only way the Mets make this deal is if Colorado takes all of Roger Cedeno's contract ($10 mill over two years), and they pick up $5 mill of Wilson's contract. This is a guy who didn't even put up an 800 OPS on the road last year, and we're going to give up prospects AND pay off his albatross contract? Fafafafafa.

Mets In Print

2003-11-06T17:56:00.000-05:00

The Mets made it official yesterday, formally naming Rick Peterson their new pitching coach/savior. He will be given carte blanche to do as he pleases with the Mets entire organizational approach to pitching. They also made several other coaching changes, "promoting" Matt Galante to assistant bench coach and bringing up AAA manager Bobby Floyd to be third base coach for the big club.

A few interesting notes from today's papers:

Jorge Arangure Jr. of the Bergen Record says: "[John] Franco pitched well after his return, compiling a 2.62 ERA in 34.1 innings."

John Franco gave little indication that he deserves a roster spot on any big league team. I give Johnny a ton of credit for coming back from T.J. surgery at his age, and he's really been a soldier for this team, weathering the "Worst Team Money Can Buy" clubs, as well as losing his job outright as Mets closer to Armando Benitez. However, for a team that is rebuilding and trying to get a good look at as many young ballplayers as possible, I just don't see Franco as a valuable asset to this club. We already have overpaid veteran middle-relievers (SEE: David Weathers, Mike Stanton). While Franco likely won't command much in salary ($1 mill tops), I feel that the roster spot could be better utilized by the likes of Tyler Yates and Orber Moreno.

Apparently, both the Mets and Yankees are interested in light-hitting, light-fielding Todd Walker. After arguing with my friend Mike, a Yankee fan, over who DIDN'T want Walker more, I tried my best to digest this news. Walker's agent Alan Meersand apparently acknowledges his client's defensive shortcomings, as quoted in today's Bergen Record:

"Don't you think his offense more than makes up for the fact he makes a few errors?"

Walker was on-par defensively with human wind-tunnel Alfonso Soriano, with very similar fielding percentages and range factors. I only make this comparison because Soriano is largely regarded as a terrible fielder, which he, in fact, is. Walker's agent went to far as to say that his client would be looking for a three-or-four-year deal as well as a raise over his 2003 salary of $3.45 mill. I'd say he was insane, except that Im sure at least one team would be willing to cough up that much. Plus, the other day I actually saw someone describe Walker as a "raker". I'm unfamiliar with Walker's landscaping prowess, but I am very familiar with his exploits at the plate. Take a look at these two lines:

283/333/428 with 48bb/54k and 55 xbh (13hr) in 587ab plus 1/2 sb (50%)
260/344/421 with 48bb/34k and 34 xbh (15hr) in 404ab plus 28/40 sb (70%)

The top line is Mr. Walker. The bottom line is Eric Young, though I used only his stats with Milwaukee last season (I left out his SanFran stats). Eric Young will be lucky to get a one-year deal worth $2 mill. Granted, he's 36 and Walker is only 30. I wouldn't sign either of them for the years OR money that Walker is looking for, but I'd sooner sign Young for one-year at $2 mill than Walker at anything near his asking price.

The headline in today's New York Post: METS TARGET CLOSER KOCH

I'm not a big fan of spending large sums of any commodity (money, prospects, prosthetic limbs etc.) on a "proven closer". However, it may make sense (as it always does) to borrow a page from Billy Beane's book. As I originally suggested for David Weathers, making someone the Mets dedicated closer for half or all of next season could pay big dividends. Just as Billy Beane has done with Jason Isringhausen and Billy Koch, and this year with Keith Foulke, one great year out of a closer can net either:

1) Prospects in a trade at the deadline
2) Draft pick compensation when the closer signs with another team

Foulke hasn't brought either of these things...yet. He may bring a high draft pick, or may even resign with the A's. Billy Koch brought Keith Foulke, and Izzy brought a couple of good draft picks. Koch has one year left on his contract at, gulp, $6.375 mill. He had a lousy year last season:

5.77 era, 1.64 whip, 53 ip, 7.13 k/9, 1.50 k/bb, 1.6 hr/9

The hr/9 is deplorable, but the k/9 rate is still good. He lost his closer job last year, and for good reason. However, he had a great year in 2002 with the A's under the guidance of Rick Peterson, and there's no reason to think he can't put up good numbers next year at Shea. The White Sox have understandably soured on him, and would probably give him up for nothing. I bet they could even be conned into taking Stormy Weathers' $3.6 mill off of our hands.

Last but certainly not least, Tom Glavine is trying to woo Kevin Millwood to the Mets. That Millwood is still considered a front-of-the-rotation starter is beyond me. Millwood is a #3 starter, and may even be a #2 on a crappy staff like the Mets'. To pay him #1 starter money ($60 mill over five years) would be almost as foolish as paying a 37-year-old $45 million over four years. Thanks, but no thanks Tommy. Stop doing us favors and just pitch.

Shea-Rod

2003-10-31T13:44:00.000-05:00

Let me take you back in time. It was October, 2000. The Subway World Series was underway, much to the chagrin of everyone but Mets and Yankees fans. The boyfriend of one of my girlfriend's housemates, a devoted Yankee blowhard, had nothing nice to say about the Mets. That is, except for this:

"A-Rod will look good in a Mets uniform next season."

The Mets were busy losing Game 2, but my heart was aflutter with thoughts of Alex Rodriguez playing gold-glove defense at short and launching bombs into the Pepsi Picnic Area. As we all know, the Mets went on to lose that series 4-1, but at least I could take solace in the fact that the best player in baseball was a good bet to be joining an already-playoff-caliber team.

And then, a bombshell. The Mets were out of the hunt, citing A-Rod's alleged demands for private jets, offices at Shea, etc. Whether these "asks" were legit, who's to say? All I knew was that our consolation prize for losing the World Series was not in the cards (that prize turned out to be Kevin Appier). Even up until the day that A-Rod signed that massive $252 million deal with Texas, I still held out hope that the Mets might change their tune and sign him up. However, it wasn't meant to be.

Back to modern day. The Mets have done seemingly-nothing right since (and including) that offseason, while A-Rod has toiled away in Texas, putting up MVP-season-after-MVP-season-after-MVP-season for a last place club. For the first time in a while, the Mets have a surplus of cash (their 2004 payroll currently stands on the order of $60 million, with designs on keeping it under $100 million), and it seems more likely than ever, in the face of baseball's ever-changing economic landscape, that Texas would like to unload that $25 mill-per contract and A-Rod would like to get out of dodge. This is where the Mets come in.

If the Mets would be willing to assume most of A-Rod's contract, they could probably hang on to most or all of their highly touted prospects. For argument's sake, let's say that Texas is willing to pick up $7 million per for each of the seven years left on the deal. That puts his annual salary in the $18 million ballpark. Now, I originally thought it would be necessary to trade Jose Reyes, but with the Mets picking up most of A-Rod's hefty salary, they could probably get by without sending him. With the money saved, the Rangers could sign Miguel Tejada at $11 million per and still have enough money to throw at a couple other positions. The Mets would definitely need to send Aaron Heilman, and probably three or four of the following:

Danny Garcia (2B)
Royce Ring (RP)
Victor Diaz (2B)
Tyler Yates (RP)
Lenny Dinardo (SP)
Matt Peterson (SP)

This, I would be okay with. While I like most of the above players a great deal, I don't feel that any of them will be worldbeaters, and would gladly part with most of them for A-Rod. Even with losing a handful of those prospects, the gems of the Mets system will be left intact (including the aforementioned Jose Reyes):

David Wright (3B)
Scott Kazmir (SP)
Justin Huber (C)

Granted, these three are at least a year or two away, but they all project to be very good major league players at key defensive positions.

So, we now have A-Rod in the fold and our payroll is around $78 million. Now, despite his offensive-shortcomings, we sign Mike Cameron (assuming he won't cost us draft picks), to shore up our outfield defense. I would go two years at $5 mill per, and might be willing to go three years at $14 mill total.

Next, we get Richard Hidalgo ($12 mill) and Billy Wagner ($8 mill) for either:

a) a couple mid-level prospects, with Houston picking up half of their combined salaries
b) Roger Cedeno ($9 mill over two years)

Let's take option (a), just for simplicity's sake. We would then have Hidalgo and Wagner under contract for 2004 at a total of $10 mill.

We now have a closer, right-fielder, shortstop, center-fielder, and second-baseman (Reyes moving over from SS). We can then pick up one or two low-cost free agent/non-tenders to round out the pitching staff. The following are available:

Dustin Hermanson - Sure, he's a dried-up husk right now. He was once a first round pick of the Padres in 1994, and still has mid-90's heat. He's probably worth taking a flyer on, because if anyone can turn his career around, it's Rick Peterson.

Corey Lidle - This could be another reclamation project for Peterson. Lidle has great control (had a very good 2.89 K/BB with Oakland in 2002), and would definitely benefit from the Mets newfound up-the-middle-defense strength.

Rick Reed - This guy was a horse for the Mets, and he still has great control (29BB in 135 IP in 2003)

None of these three would likely command a salary in excess of $2 mill. Now, with these acquisition, the 2004 Mets look like:

Lineup

2B - Jose Reyes (<$1)
LF - Cliff Floyd ($6.5)
1B - Mike Piazza ($15)
SS - Alex Rodriguez ($18)
RF - Richard Hidalgo ($6)
CF - Mike Cameron ($5)
C - Jason Phillips (<$1)
3B - Ty Wiggingon (<$1)

Total salary: $45 million

Rotation

Al Leiter ($8)
Tom Glavine ($10.5)
Steve Trachsel ($5)

and two of...

Corey Lidle ($2)
Rick Reed ($2)
Dustin Hermanson ($2)
Jae Seo (<$1)

Total salary: $27 million

Bullpen

David Weathers ($3.6)
Mike Stanton ($3)
Jason Anderson (<$1)
Dan Wheeler (<$1)
Scott Strickland ($1)
Pedro Feliciano (<$1)
Billy Wagner ($4)

Total salary: $12.6 million

Bench: Tony Clark, Matt Stairs, Tony Batista, Ellis Burks, Brian Jordan, whoever, etc... ($5 million)

Grand Total: $89.6 million

Even if they had to pick up all of Hidalgo and Wagner's salaries, this would still come in a shade under $100 million. Is this a likely scenario? No, probably not. Is it feasible? Maybe. It would make for a very interesting and very entertaining ballclub, with a great mix of talent, some speed, great character guys, no real clubhouse problems, and a Mets team I would be proud to call my own.

Viewer Mail...

2003-10-29T10:57:00.000-05:00

First off, I just want to say that SaberMets is proud to sponsor Billy Beane's page at baseball-reference.com. Without his (as well as others') insight and forward-thinking, I wouldn't be nearly as interested (read: obsessed) with baseball and baseball statistics.

Now, in response to my flogging of Mike Cameron yesterday, I received the following e-mail:

John: Below is a great Cameron Article from Aaron's Baseball Blog. The Safeco thing is real, and he could have an MVP type year with the Mets. He'll hit better than Duncan!

If you haven't done so already, check out Aaron's Baseball Blog. For the article in question, check this out.

My response:

Thanks for the article, John, it's very interesting. Aaron brings up an intriguing point about Cameron, as his home/road splits are very pronounced. There are two problems, though. The first problem is, through no fault of Aaron's, the article only encompassed the first three months of the season. Cameron's final 2003 home/road splits look like this:

Home: 235/329/429 with 32bb/68k and 24xbh (11hr) in 247ab
Road: 268/357/432 with 38bb/69k and 30xbh (7hr) in 287ab

While he's certainly better on the road, it's nowhere near the extent of the prior three seasons (or even the first three months of 2003). The OPS difference is 31 points, which is not insignificant, but is also not enough to put a seemingly-mediocre hitter like Cameron into Todd Helton's company. Granted, one season of similar splits doesn't completely skew three years of pronounced splits. Here are his OPS splits in each of the past four seasons:

       2000 2001 2002 2003
Home   .677 .669 .704 .758
Road   .916 .983 .854 .789
Delta .239 .314 .150 .031

His split was ridiculous in 2001, but that certainly appears to be the exception to the trend, where he had a career year on the road. Aside from that season, his home OPS has actually increased each year while his road OPS has decreased. As a result, his delta-OPS (OPS change) has decreased each year accordingly.

Even if we can ignore these facts, it would be borderline-criminal to suggest that Cameron would put up an "MVP type" year with the Mets in 2004.

Here are the BPF (Batter Park Factors) for Safeco and Shea Stadium for the 2000-2002 seasons, courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Park factors attempt to illustrate a stadium's effect on hitting or pitching relative to the rest of the league. A number above 100 is a good park for hitters and a number below 100 is a good park for pitchers.

         2000 2001 2002
Safeco    91    93    92
Shea      93    94    94

So Shea's a slightly better park for hitters, but the difference is hardly cavernous. Add to that the league change (which may or may not be a red herring), and Cameron would probably project an OPS of 750-800 with the Mets. Is that terrible? Definitely not. Cameron is an excellent center-fielder, probably on-par with Torii Hunter but not as good as Andruw Jones. His offense and defense would be reasonable-if-not-significant upgrades over what the Mets penciled in last season. The cost of acquiring a player like Mike Cameron is what gives me pause. He will be looking for a 3+ year deal in the $5-$7 million range, which is far too much money over far too many years. Inking him to a multi-year deal would immediately exclude the Mets from the Carlos Beltran Sweepstakes. Further, I don't know whether Seattle will offer Cameron arbitration and, if they do, what type (A, B, or C) free agent he will be. The Mets have the 3rd pick in the amateur draft this year, which is theirs to keep. However, they have the 3rd pick in every round of the draft, and they could conceivably lose their second-round pick if Cameron is either a Type A (top 30% of all players at his position) or Type B (top 50% of all players at his position).

Basically, you are right that Mike Cameron would hit better than Jeff Duncan (536 OPS), but the potential cost (years/money/picks/Beltran) would outweigh any contribution he could make to the non-contending 2004 Mets.

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

2003-10-28T11:48:00.000-05:00

The Good: The Mets will announce today that they have removed the interim title from Jim Duquette, naming him as their tenth General Manager. It was only a matter of time before this was made official, as The Duke proved his worth by ably ridding the Mets of albatrosses like Jeromy Burnitz, Roberto Alomar, and Armando Benitez. Not only did he manage to bring the Mets under the $117 million luxury tax threshold, but he acquired some live arms and decent prospects in the process.

The Bad: The New York Post reports today that the Mets would "definitely" be interested in pursuing Mike "All-Glove" Cameron. Post columnist Michael Morrissey goes so far as to say that, in light of the Mariners' current front office disarray, the Mets would have the unique opportunity to "pounce on Cameron, a 30-year-old fan favorite and Gold Glove winner who has made Mariners fans forget the Ken Griffey Jr. era." The Mets "pouncing" on Cameron would be much the way a soldier would "pounce" on a live grenade to save his platoon. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one. Cameron's agent/spin doctor says that his client's non-prowess with the stick is not a result of the spaciousness of Safeco Field, but rather the stadium's "glare", the cause of which is not specified. "They had trouble with it for years and brought NASA in there to find a solution." I see.

The Ugly: Okay, here's where it gets dicey. As Michael of Michael's Mets Ramblings also points out, the Mets, according to an article in today's Star Ledger, will make Kaz Matsui one of their primary off-season targets. That's fine. His stats project reasonably well and, in the right deal, wouldn't be a bad acquisition, considering that the Mets wouldn't have to forfeit any of their draft picks (they pick 3rd overall in each round) to sign him. He's a shortstop, but that's okay because the Mets will try to move him to 2B. Right? RIGHT?!?! According to the article, Matsui is not very open to changing positions, so the Mets think tank is apparently considering moving The Golden Child to 2B, citing that he is "athletic enough to make the switch". I agree with Michael that the only player you even think about relocating Jose Reyes for is All-Star/Raker/Baseball God Alex Rodriguez. I probably wouldn't even move him for Nomah.

The Bad and Ugly is speculative at this point, relying on "sources" and such, but they don't give me warm fuzzies about the impending off-season shuffle. In addition to the Good, the other ray of light is that Luis Castillo's miserable-save-for-one-at-bat World Series performance has apparently soured many Mets execs on the light-hitting second-baseman. For me, his inability to get the ball out of the infield and inept base-stealing did the trick.

Yankees Win! Yankees Win!

2003-10-26T23:32:00.000-05:00

This would have been the headline Sunday night if my recurring nightmares during the World Series had come true. Thanks to hope, faith, and Beckett, that is not the case. I can certainly sympathize with the Yankee players and fans (see: 2000 World Series; Super Bowl XXXV; 2000-2001 Stanley Cup Finals).

Sorrow, however, I do not feel. Despite Yankee fans' feeling that this one "slipped away", and that three years with two World Series appearances and no rings is a "drought", they can go sell downtrodden somewhere else. Their $180 million soapbox derby racer came up short, looking much like last year's model: wheels falling off, paint chipping on the exterier, engine idling in neutral. Meanwhile, the "next big thing", the Florida Marlins, end a five-year drought of their own by soaring past last year's model, leaving the Evil Empire in their proverbial dust. The baseball season is finally over, but you can still hear the sounds. The sound of Don Zimmer crying himself to sleep. The smoldering sound of large piles of money set on fire. The whisper-soft sound of "Mystique and Aura" quietly leaving the building, through the back door, with their tails between their legs.

Don't be sad, Yankee fans. You'll be back next year. Same time, same place. Different right-fielder? Probably. Different GM? Could be. Different manager? You never know. Now that the games are over, it's time to go to work.

I'll leave you with the answering machine message my friend left waiting for me when I got in last night: "This is the best I've felt since two years ago at this time when the Diamondbacks beat the Yankees." Sad, But True. This is all we've got.

Don't forget to buy your very own Florida Marlins official World Series Champion gear. (I don't get a cut, trust me).

2003-10-26T23:31:00.000-05:00

Evidently, Omar Minaya was not in the cards. A number of sources, including MLB.com, indicate that Mr. Minaya declined the Mets' offer and will instead toil away in Montreal, San Juan, Purgatory, Seattle, or some other such non-descript locale. All the best to Omar.

I would expect (read: plead) that the Rick Peterson negotiations are wrapped up and announced sometime soon, so he can get to work picking up the pieces of Tom Glavine's career and Aaron Heilman's potential. Good luck to him, he has his work cut out for him.

Peterson, Minaya Close

2003-10-25T11:46:00.000-04:00

A number of local papers today reported that the Oakland A's have finally granted unconditional permission to the Mets to speak with pitching coach/God Rick Peterson. Insiders expect that a deal could be consummated within days and an announcement can be expected shortly after the World Series. Peterson is a native of New Brunswick, New Jersey, and currently lives in Wall, NJ with his wife and three sons. (mets.com)

Insiders (the same ones?) also say that Omar Minaya is close to accepting an executive scouting position with the Mets similar to that of Gene "Stick" Michael with the Yankees. One report says that the Mets might be willing to offer Minaya a higher salary to compensate for slightly lesser authority. An announcement on this is expected next week as well, possibly in tandem with the Peterson hiring. Minaya grew up in Queens and currently lives in the great state of NJ.

2003-10-24T17:24:00.000-04:00

Another day, another lackluster Yankee performance in the aught-three World Series. David Wells was back at the team hotel bar just in time for happy hour, having thrown only eight pitches in a 1-2-3 first inning.

It's entirely possble that Mr. Conditioning Program has thrown his last pitch as a major leaguer. He's clearly neither a "gamer" nor a "team player", a far cry from the David Cone's that the late-90's Yanks used to run out there. Sadly, though, he seems to be somewhat representative of the general malaise that has befallen the Yankees this season. That's not to say that they won't squeeze two more W's out of this now-seemingly-emfeebled roster. Regardless, you can expect wholesale changes in Yankeeville this off-season.

Back to the game. Of late, the Evil's have at least been able to rely on Jose Contreras for one inning of lights-out pitching, followed by one or more innings of Jeff D'Amico-style batting practice. No such luck this time, as BP came early with the Marlins putting a three-spot on the board in the second inning.

I actually slept through the first 6+ innings of the game, saving my strength for the seemingly-inevitable Marlin late-inning collapse that never was. Oh, how they tried, though. I nearly crapped myself when Bernie Williams hit that 2-1 pitch off of U³. But alas, he only had warning track power, with the ball falling safely (safe for everyone but my undershorts) into the waiting glove of Juan Encarnacion. A beauty of a pick by Derrek Lee, and the Marlins are up three-games-to-two. So, despite their best efforts, the Marlins were unable to hand this one over to the Pinstripes; Unable to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Josh Beckett was just recently announced as the Marlins' Game 6 starter, in a move that will draw plenty of criticism, both now and if the Marlins lose both games at the Stadium. Anything is a better idea than carting Mark Redman's 6.50 postseason ERA out there. He of the 1.89 WHIP and 10/9 K/BB ratio.

I don't want to read too much into it, but Mr. Swing-at-Anything's inning of work in right field last night moved him that much closer to being out of the stadium altogether. If you believe everything you read in the papers (which I do), the writing is already on the wall concerning Soriano's future with the Yankees. Whether they will be willing to toss aside his considerable production the past two seasons in the face of incomparable free-swingingness, that's anybody's guess.

Signing off, I am Sheldon...

2003-10-23T17:34:00.000-04:00

Rob Neyer has written another great article about clutch hitting or, rather, the misconception that "great clutch hitters" actually exist outside the realm of "great hitters". That is to say, hitters who are otherwise not much with the stick who magically become rakers when batting in "clutch situations" (deemed by the Elias Sports Bureau to be any at-bat after the sixth inning with your team trailing by no-more-than three runs), aka LIPS (Late Inning Pressure Situations).

I won't attempt to reiterate what Rob has already said better than I could hope to, so I'll just let you read his articles. Needless to say, if you've watched any of the World Series thus far, you've undoubtedly heard the likes of Tim McCarver and Joe Morgan (aka Tweedledee and Tweedledum) ramble on about how such-and such is a great clutch hitter, and how whats-his-name really steps it up in October. It's hogwash, the whole lot.

Much the same way I went to sleep after the Yankees tied game 7 of the ALCS, I got my nap on after the top-o-the-ninth last night when U³ blew a two-run-lead on a pinch-hit triple by major-league-retread Ruben Sierra (whom Jon Miller has taken to calling ru-BEN, placing the emphasis on the BEN instead of the RU). I resigned myself to another Yankee world series victory, acknowledging that these are games that the Yanks always win. Much to my surprise, I awoke Christmas morning to find that the mighty fish (or as old-man-Gammons calls them the Phish, aka the yerk-toting frisbee-chucking cheeba-monkeys) had pulled it out. A-Gonz The Younger's turn as Aaron Boone's national league human-out-maker counterpart came to a (temporary) halt when he launched that liner over the short wall in left-field. It reminded me a lot of Mr. McGwire's #62 in '98, just clearing the fence at Busch Stadium. Regardless, Jeff Weaver is once again the loneliest Who in Whoville, assuredly banished to Joe Torre's doghouse.

I'm beginning to think this blogging would go a lot faster if I didn't have a link on every third word. Nevertheless, I think Game 5 is a pretty big one for Florida. Aside from facing the prospects of having to win Games 6 and 7 at Yankee Stadium, they would have to put up a decent effort against Andy Pettitte, which has been easier said than done this postseason. I think they can definitely get to David Wells, and a Josh Beckett/Mike Mussina Game 7 will be a crapshoot regardless. Bottom line: I think the Marlins have a pretty decent shot at not becoming Victim #27. By decent, I think probably 3:1 or 4:1.

Either way, I'm just hoping for a great three games (and by "great three games" I mean "Marlins in 7").

The Great Giambino Or: Why Joe Torre Is The Most Overrated Manager In Baseball

2003-10-22T10:21:00.000-04:00

Okay, so I threw that last part in there just to get a rise out of Yankee fans. I'm of the belief that field managers are generally given too much of the credit when a team succeeds and too much of the blame when a team fails. I write this as David Cassidy unmercifully butchers God Bless America during game 3 of the World Series.

When Joe Torre announced that Jason Giambi will be playing first base in lieu of Nick Johnson for the games in Florida, I decided to do a little (read: very little) research as to whether or not this was a wise idea. In the process, I stumbled upon the following: Jason Giambi is a beast. You may be saying to yourself, "Of course he's a beast. That's why they're paying him roughly the GDP of Peru for his services over the next five seasons (plus the last two). Tell me something I don't know?" Okay. Take the first-baseman's glove away from Giambi and he becomes almost pedestrian at the plate. There may be some circumstances I'm not privy to (injury, protein deposit, etc.), but the following statistics are pretty staggering:

2000
1B 348/491/678 with 118/75 and 62 xbh (38) in 422ab
DH 259/396/506 with 18/20 and 11 xbh (5) in 85ab

2001
1B 346/482/652 with 117/74 and 75 xbh (32) in 462ab
DH 316/443/737 with 12/9 and 12 xbh (6) in 57ab

2002
1B 344/461/674 with 68/60 and 50 xbh (29) in 331ab
DH 271/397/489 with 41/52 and 26 xbh (12) in 229ab

2003
1B 277/441/592 with 78/79 and 42 xbh (25) in 292ab
DH 220/377/452 with 51/60 and 24 xbh (16) in 241ab

I included 2001 and 2002 stats for completeness, but the small sample size doesn't really lend itself well to cogent analysis. So, we'll focus on the past two seasons with the Yanks.

Okay, so his 886 OPS as a DH in 2002 is hardly pedestrian (it would have only trailed Bernabe Williams' 908). However, it was nigh 250 points lower than when he played 1B, with much of the dropoff attributed to his decreased SLG. In 2003, Giambi put up an 829 OPS, or a hot-streak better than Mo Vaughn's 805. Let's take a look at his RC/27 for his positional split this season:

I didn't have exact splits for GIDP, SF, SH, and IBB, so I took his totals in those categories and DIV'd them (to get whole numbers) based on the percentage of at-bats (53% for 1B, 47% for DH).

2003 Giambi as 1B: 10.46 RC/27
2003 Giambi as DH: 6.27 RC/27

For those who are unfamiliar with this particular metric, it attempts to predict the number of runs that a team full of Giambis would score in a nine-inning game, or 27 outs. As you can see, Giambi-1B would score a ludicrous number of runs, with Giambi-DH putting up merely ridiculous numbers. To put this in perspective, a team made up of nine Giambi-1Bs would score 1694 runs, while a team of Giambi-DHs would score 1015 runs. The American League record is 1067, set by the 1931 Yankees.

As for Nick Johnson, I am not going to go into the nitty-gritty, but his 2003 splits look like this:

1B 286/425/488 with 47/36 and 23 xbh (10) in 213ab
DH 284/422/450 with 23/21 and 10 xbh (4) in 109ab

Nick's splits are more symmetrical. The Yankees are fortunate to be playing in the American League, where they can take advantage of both of these great hitters. They were both in the Top-10 in the AL in EqA, with Johnson coming in 9th and the Giambino nestled in the 4-spot, behind A-Rod, Carlos Delgado, and M-Ram. If there were some way to play Nick Johnson at third base and sit Aaron Boone's carcass on the bench for the next three (now two) games, I would probably do it.

So, was playing Nick Johnson at 1B while DH'ing The Great Giambino a smart move? It doesn't look like it from where we're (I'm?) standing. Unless George Steinbrenner is filling out the lineup cards, this particular blunder is all on Clueless Joe. Of course, with the Yanks two wins from yet-another World Series title, the point may be moot. It's something to think about going into next season, however, because after the Yankees trade for Carlos Beltran and sign Vladimir Guerrero, Joe Torre will have some serious lineup-gridlock to diffuse. We all wish we had such problems.

2003-10-17T09:43:00.000-04:00

The San Francisco Chronicle reports today that the Mets and A's are discussing possible compensation for Rick Peterson. According to the article, the Mets have NOT yet received permission to negotiate with Peterson, but have had talks of the "informal" variety. The A's appear adament about shipping Terrence Long out of town, and the article suggests that the Mets would part with a low-level prospect for Long and Peterson. Long currently has about $5 mill remaining on a four-year, $11.6 million deal, and is a marginal major leaguer at best. Billy Beane must have been drinking some of Mr. Wilpon's Kool-Aid when he signed Long to that deal.

Long's only half-decent offensive season came in 2000 when he posted a 788 OPS with 56 XBH. It's been a precipitous drop-off since then. To borrow from Avkash's statistical prose (which I am rather fond of):

2000 age 24 288/336/452 with 43/77 and 56xbh (18) in 584ab
2001 age 25 283/335/412 with 52/103 and 53 xbh (12) in 629ab
2002 age 26 240/298/390 with 48/96 and 52 xbh (16) in 587ab
2003 age 27 245/293/385 with 31/67 and 38 xbh (14) in 486ab

While he's only 27 and is just hitting his prime, he shows no indication that he's about to turn into a productive hitter anytime soon. He has apparently clashed with A's manager Ken Macha (according to T.Long himself, 20 of the A's 25 players don't want to play for Macha either), though his numbers under Art Howe weren't exactly world-beating (they were admittedly several steps up from his current production). He looks to me like an expensive version of Timo Perez, though Timo's three-year splits against righties are actually better than Long's.

Barry Zito gives Rick Peterson a lot of the credit for helping him, as well as Jason Isringhausen, Billy Koch, and Keith Foulke. I'm not a proponent of burning large piles of money, but if Peterson is all he's cracked up to be, throwing a few bucks away on T-Long would be one of the best off-season moves the Mets can make.

2003-10-16T11:56:00.000-04:00

Sorry for the lack of recent blogs (thanks for reminding me every day, Mike). I was on vacation last week in California, and have been busy this week watching the BoSox cowboy up.

The Star Ledger reported three bits of information the other day.

1) The Mets will not seek permission from The Boss to interview Brian Cashman for their vacant GM position.
2) The Mets are still interviewing candidates for a top executive position (read: not necessarily GM). The Ledge indicates that The Duke will likely be named full-time GM.
3) The Mets have requested and have been granted permission by the A's to speak with pitching guru Rick Peterson.

The Mets would have to wait until after the Yankees postseason is over before talking to Cashman anyway, so this probably isn't very interesting. If the Yankees find a way to lose tonight's game 7, Cashman will almost certainly be gone, and anyone/everyone will be subject to King George's turbulent flights of fancy.

The second bit of info leads one to believe that the Mets may have already chosen their next GM in Jim Duquette. The current interview process may be to surround him with intelligent baseball men. It's still beyond me why P.DePo hasn't been mentioned anywhere outside of the blog community, but that's out of our control.

The third piece of news is probably the most intersting, and certainly the most promising. The Post reported today that the Mets interviewed Rick Peterson yesterday, though it's not believed that an offer was made....yet. Bud Selig doesn't like things like this to be announced in the middle of the postseason, so any big news will likely wait until the conclusion of the World Series.

I hope to have the Mets best pitching staff the past six years had to offer up soon, to go along with the lineup posted last week.

Also, to recap some news from last week, Marco Scutaro (aka Marcos Scutaro) and Matt Watson were claimed by the A's. While neither of these players will likely ever be major contributors at the big league level, both showed to be proficient at the plate in the minors, and are certainly better suited to "playing baseball" than the Mets current roster-fodder Joe McEwing and Timo Perez.

2003-10-07T11:30:00.000-04:00

First off, I've added MLB Player Index links to the sidebar. Each one has a "search" option, which will prompt your for either the player's name or last name, and will perform an on-the-fly search of the corresponding player index. If you know of a good player index that should be added, let me know.

There's not much going on in Metsville these days. The Sox/A's series wrapped up in dramatic fashion last night, with Derek Lowe throwing two nasty pitches to backwards-k Adam Melhuse and T.Long. Lowe infuriated the A's bench by make a DX-style crotch gesture after pumping his fists. It didn't look like he was trying to disrespect the A's, but the A's were probably still upset from M-Ram's HR-stylin' earlier in the game. The Damon/Jackson collision was pretty horrific - thanks for showing it from 15 different angles FOX. Nevertheless, it was a very exciting series, and I think the Sox stack up much better against the Yanks, considering the A's may have been down to one-of-their-big-three starters. Go Sox!

Now that the A's are out of the playoff picture, the door will hopefully be open for the Mets to pry Rick Peterson back to his home in New Jersey. I'm of the belief that managers/coaches are typically given too much of the credit when a team succeeds and too much of the blame when a team fails. However, it's tough to argue with Peterson's results. The A's have been at or near the top of the bigs in ERA and WHIP each of the past four seasons. Sure, a lot of that has to do with their stable of big arms, but certainly Peterson deserves some of the credit for that. Peterson is a great coach because the pitchers are good, the pitchers are good because Peterson is a great coach. Regardless of how you spin the specious logic, the Mets should covet Peterson.

Since little else is going on, I present (IMO) the best individual Met seasons at each position over the past half-dozen years. I decided to go with three miscellaneous outfielders instead of one at each outfield position, mainly because the Mets outfield has been slim pickings in recent seasons. I was tempted to use wonderboy Jose Reyes at SS, mostly because Rey-O was so bad. In the end, I went with Boom-Boom and his one-September-homerun-a-year. (The inspiration for this list came from the great Ultimate Mets Database).

POS Player           Year AVG OBP SLG   OPS    R HR RBI SB
C    Mike Piazza      2000 .324 .398 .614 1.012   90 26 113   4
1B John Olerud      1998 .354 .447 .551 .998   91 22   93   2
2B Edgardo Alfonzo 2000 .324 .425 .542 .967 109 25   94   3
SS Rey Ordonez      1999 .258 .319 .317 .636   49   1   60   8
3B Robin Ventura    1999 .301 .379 .529 .908   88 32 120   1
OF Cliff Floyd      2003 .290 .376 .518 .894   57 18   68   3
OF Rickey Henderson 1999 .315 .423 .466 .889   89 12   42 37
OF Roger Cedeno     1999 .313 .396 .408 .804   90   4   36 66

If I left out your favorite, let me know.

2003-10-03T16:10:00.000-04:00

I believe the Mets should arrest all hope of competing in 2004 and build towards competing in 2005+. However, since this is a blog, it would behoove me to at least entertain the possibility of the Mets making a Royals-esque push towards the 2004 postseason. With that in mind, I believe the Mets can significantly improve their team with the following moves:

Acquire Javier Vazquez, Livan Hernandez, and Orlando Cabrera from Les Expos. It's difficult to say what the Mets would have to pony up in return. Vasquez is obviously a stud, but will likely command something in the $9-$10mill range through arbitration. Cabrera made $3.3mill last year, and I believe is also arbo-eligible. Livan had his $6mill option for 2004 vested when he pitched 650 total innings the past three years AND 217 innings in 2003. So that's nigh $20mill the 'spo's would be able to unload. Provided nobody buys them, MLB would be more than happy to wave bye-bye to that chunk of payroll. Considering that hefty price tag the Mets would be assuming, I can't imagine they would have to give up much. Maybe Aaron Heilman and Grant Roberts.

Okay. We've just added a #1 started and a #3-or-4 starter. We can move Cabrera's gold glove over to 3B, and Wiggie can shift back to his "natural" position of 2B, where his power numbers won't look so underwhelming. Add to that a Piazza/Phillips platoon between 1B and C, and we have a pretty decent infield, defensively and offensively. Okay, the left side would be very good, and the right side not-so-good, defensively anyways. Offensively it would be quite good all-around.

Now, the outfield. Cliff Floyd is good. Pick up Reggie Sanders and his 913 OPS for $2mill. His OBP was only 345, but even if his SLG drops 100 points, he'd still be a huge upgrade over Cedeno/Timo/Gonzalez/Sack-O-Bones who played there this year. In center we have a couple of options. Mike Cameron is a free agent, but I'm not such a big fan. Particularly because he's not much with the stick, and will likely demand 2+ years, leaving us holding our junk when Carlos Beltran hits the free agent pool next year. A better bet would be another 1-year FA offer to someone like Kenny Lofton. He actually posted a respectable 801 OPS with 30 SB.

With the additions of Vazquez and Hernandez, we would be left with a surplus of starting pitching. One of Hernandez, Steve Trachsel, or Jae Seo could be dealt, or we could just hang on to them all and maybe move Seo to the pen for a while. Either way, our line-up and starting rotation shape up like this, with actual/projected salaries in parentheses ($1 = $1,000,000):

Lineup

SS - Jose Reyes (<$1)
3B - Orlando Cabrera ($3.5)
LF - Cliff Floyd ($6.5)
C - Mike Piazza ($15)
RF - Reggie Sanders ($2)
1B - Jason Phillips (<$1)
CF - Kenny Lofton ($1.5)
2B - Ty Wigginton (<$1)

Total salary: $30 million

Rotation

Javier Vazquez ($9.5)
Tom Glavine ($10.5)
Al Leiter ($8)
Livan Hernandez ($6)
Steve Trachsel/Jae Seo ($5)/(<$1)

Total salary: $39 million

Bullpen

David Weathers ($3.6)
Mike Stanton ($3)
Jason Anderson (<$1)
Dan Wheeler (<$1)
Prospects/Spare Parts ($2-$3)

Total salary: $10.6 million

Bench: Tony Clark, Matt Stairs, Johnny Non-Tender... ($3-$4)

Grand Total: $83.6 million

This scenario would also give us first crack at signing Vazquez long-term.

2003-10-01T16:23:00.008-04:00

Vern Ruhle was given his walking papers by the Mets today. For P.C. reasons, he was actually "reassigned" within the organization, but he's as good as gone. Possible replacements are anybody's guess (Rick Waits, Randy Niemann, Johnny Inevitablefailure). The Duke said that he and Artimus Howe were in agreement on the move. By agreement, I would imagine the conversation went something like this:

The Duke: Tommy thinks we should dump Vern. Your thoughts?
Artimus: *stupid grin*
The Duke: I'm glad we're in agreement

For the record, Tom Glavine is playing the good soldier, saying, "I can't put my finger on anything. I had a good relationship."

Ruhle's successes this season include:

Showing that Jae Seo is a promising component of the Mets rotation

Convincing Senator Al to injure himself and lose some weight

Getting the most out of Steve Trachsel

Keeping alive the long-standing Mets tradition of fugly pitching coaches (Hough, Robson, Apodaca)

Ruhle's Failures include:

Not convincing Tommy Glavine to pitch for us the way he used to pitch against us

Aaron Heilman not showing any ability to succeed at the major league level

Ditto Jeremy Griffiths, Mike Bascik, Pat Strange

2003-09-29T23:15:00.000-04:00

Okay, second (actually third) post of the day, because I have some ideas about what the Mets should do next year. This is going on the not-so-farfetched assumption that the Mets won't be contending for anything but fourth place next season. There are a few things the Mets can do this offseason and next season to dramatically improve their chances of competing in 2005 and beyond.

1) Make David Weathers the closer next year. I've heard the knocks: he's too old; he's not closer material; he's not any good at baseball. Weathers converted 7/9 save opportunities this season. Not too shabby. Give him the job from April-July, let him rack up 25-30 saves, and ship him off to a contender. Texas got Adrian Gonzalez for U³.

2) Find stopgap (or long-term impact) solutions for CF, RF, and 2B. I was on the fence about Vlad at first, and then all-of-a-sudden I wasn't anymore. The Mets should do anything within reason to secure Vlad long-term (5-6 years). There are so few impact players like Vlad -- franchise-altering players -- that I feel you need to go for them if/when they become available. The Mets missed out on A-Rod, and I still die a little bit every time I see him blast homer-after-homer for Texas. As long as I'm on the topic, why not go after A-Rod? Throw a package of prospects + Piazza at Tom Hicks. Start with Jose Reyes. I love the guy, but I would step over my own mother to land A-Rod. Reyes, Aaron Heilman, whoever they want. I'd also give my left nut for Manny Ramirez, P.H. (Professional Hitter). The guy can flat-out rake. There was a bit of whispering about M-Ram getting traded this offseason, and something about the Sox eating half of the $140-some-odd-million he has remaining. Probably unlikely, but I would love him on my team.

Some possibilities for 2B are:

Kaz Matsui - Of course it's difficult to project Japanese ballplayers, but Matsui posted an OPS of 1006 last year. with 46 2B, 36 HR, and 33 SB. He's going to be 28 in October, and won't cost the Mets a draft pick to sign.

Marco Scutaro - The guy had 13 BB in 74 AB with the big club this year after tearing up Norfolk something fierce: 311/401/520/921

Roberto Alomar - I would bring him back and demote him to A-ball St. Lucie. They won the league championship this year, and we all know Alomar tries his little heart out when he's playing for a contender.

Anybody but Luis Castillo - I would avoid this guy like the plague. Sure, his 381 OBP is nice, but that 397 SLG is the pits, and his SB% (21/40) is downright awful. 31 XBH all year is only going to get worse at Shea.

3) Fire Art Howe; hire someone who knows "baseball" and "baseball players". Hire Jim Duqette full-time OR someone similar or better (read: Paul DePodesta). I doubt anyone of great promise would have any desire to helm this train wreck, but we all have our wishlist.

2003-09-29T17:58:00.002-04:00

Firstly, I would like to congratulate the entire Mets organization on a mostly-miserable season. I say mostly because there were a few bright spots.

1) Jose Reyes showed why scouts and Mets-Brass alike have been creaming themselves these past couple of seasons. We're not talking Pujolsian rookie stats here, but not too shabby for a teenager-turned-twenty-year-old:

avg: 307 obp: 334 slg: 434 ops: 769 sb: 13/16 2b: 12 3b: 4 hr: 5

Sure, the ISO is pretty poor (127) and he hasn't shown much plate discipline (13 bb / 274 ab), but he doesn't strike out that much (36 k), and he's still but a tot (allegedly turned 20 on 6/11/03).

2) Jason Phillips was a welcome surprise. Sure, he's no spring chicken (turned 27 on 9/27/03), but he tore up the International League this year to the tune of 346/435/564 before being recalled by the Metties for good in mid-May. He finished the season hitting just shy of 300 (299), his walk rate was passable (39/402), only k'd 50 times, and slugged a reasonable 443. Reasonable for a catcher that is...not so hot for 1B. Nonetheless, he played a more-than-adequate defensive first base, and should be a part of the Mets immediate-if-not-so-distant future.

3) The starting rotation isn't terrible. If you slide 1-2-3-4 up a spot to 2-3-4-5, it's not half-bad. Tom "Don't Call Me Mike" Glavine showed he's not ace-material; at least not for a now-floundering franchise. Al Leiter still looks like our ace, though he's a #2 at best. I agree with others who have said that he should have arrived at spring training 20 lbs. lighter (or Leiter), but he pitched pretty well when he wasn't fat and/or disabled. Glavine is a decent #3 when he isn't pitching against the Braves which, thanks to the atrocity heretofore-known-as the unbalanced schedule, will soon account for nigh 75% of the Mets schedule. Steve "On-The-Right" Trachsel has been more-than-respectable. Despite the fact that he pitches in 94% of the Mets games I attend, he's a dependable #4 and I'll be happy to have him back next year at 5mill. Jae Seo was pretty good too, and should be an adequate #5 for this rotation. His walk rate is terrific (46/188.1), though his k/9 rate could improve. There were rumblings before the season that his fastball was up to 94mph, but that might have been in Mo Vaughn's back pocket on the way to the pre-game buffet. A #1 horse like Javier Vasquez could really help this team over the hump...right into 4th place.

4) Robbie Alomar is gone. Let me say this unequivocably: I hate Roberto Alomar. The homo.

5) Art Howe has, at most, three years left as Mets manager. Why he has a hardon for busch-league retreads like Joe McEwing (lovingly referred to as McSuck by my fellow bloggers), Timo Perez, and Raul Gonzalez, I'll never know. What I do know is that he's a pretty lousy manager. It's amazing what studs like Jason Giambi, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson and a brilliant front office can do (Beane, DePodesta) for a manager's market value. The Mets need to pink-slip Art Howe and fast. Possible replacements:

Davey Johnson
John Gruden
Joe McEwing (anything to get him off the field)

That's it for now.

2003-09-29T16:18:00.001-04:00

Hey everyone. I know there are a number of great Mets Blogs out there [theoutsideworld], [metsramblings], [theeddiekranepoolsociety], but I figured I would open one up, more to vent/spew than anything else. Feel free to drop me a line [sendmemail] if you want to talk Mets, or anything else baseball-related.

I will try to post here as frequently as possible, and will include and comment on rumored Mets transactions during the offseason.